The Demographic Transition of India represents a fascinating journey through population dynamics, reflecting shifts in birth and death rates alongside socio-economic transformations. Over the past century, India has undergone significant demographic changes, transitioning from a period of high birth and death rates to one characterized by declining mortality rates while birth rates initially remained high before gradually stabilizing. This intricate process, shaped by various factors such as advancements in healthcare, education, urbanization, and changing societal norms, has profound implications for India’s economy, society, and overall development trajectory. As the nation continues along this demographic path, understanding and effectively managing these transitions remain paramount for policymakers and stakeholders alike.
Tags: GS Paper – 1, GS Paper – 2 Government Policies & Interventions- Population and Associated Issues
For Prelims: Demographic Dividend, Total Fertility Rate (TFR), Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee (MGNREGA), Asia 2050 report.
For Mains: Demographic Transition In India, Significance of India’s Demographic Dividend, Challenges Associated with India’s Demographic Dividend.
Context:
- India’s population growth is a significant concern, with UN projections estimating it to reach 1.7 billion by 2065, underscoring the ongoing transition of the demographic dividend.
- It redirects attention to a critical yet less emphasised factor: the declining fertility rates, forecasted to decrease to 1.29 by 2051, as per the Lancet Report.
- The government’s anticipated Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for 2021-2025 (1.94) and 2031-2035 (1.73) surpasses the estimates provided by The Lancet study and NFHS 5 data.
- This indicates the potential for India’s population to stabilise below 1.7 billion sooner than the projected year of 2065.
The Demographic Transition and Demographic Dividend:
- A demographic shift denotes alterations in a population’s makeup over time, influenced by factors like birth and death rates, migration patterns, and shifts in social and economic conditions.
- A demographic dividend arises when a nation’s population transitions from a high dependency ratio (comprising mainly children and elderly) to a higher proportion of working-age adults.
- This structural change can fuel economic growth and development provided the country invests in human capital and fosters conditions for productive employment.
What Factors Triggered Demographic Transition in India?
- Rapid Economic Development: Economic growth, especially since the early 21st century, has been a key catalyst for demographic transition. Enhanced living standards, improved healthcare, and expanded education access have collectively driven down fertility rates.
- Reduction in Infant and Child Mortality Rates: Declines in infant and child mortality have lessened the necessity for larger families to provide old-age support. With improved healthcare and reduced child mortality, families feel more secure in having fewer children.
- Rise in Women’s Education and Work Participation Rates: Increased female education and workforce engagement have been instrumental. As women attain higher education and financial independence, they opt for smaller families and postpone childbirth, resulting in lower fertility rates.
- Improvement in Housing Conditions: Better housing and access to basic amenities enhance quality of life, influencing family planning decisions. Families often choose smaller sizes when living conditions improve.
The Challenges of Demographic Transition in India:
- Dependency Ratio Shift: Initially, a decrease in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) leads to a decline in the dependency ratio and a larger working-age population. However, over time, it results in a larger proportion of elderly dependents, straining healthcare and social welfare resources, akin to situations observed in China, Japan, and European countries.
- Uneven Transition Across States: The decline in fertility rates varies across Indian states, with larger states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Jharkhand potentially taking longer to achieve replacement level fertility. This can worsen regional economic development and healthcare disparities.
- Labour Productivity and Economic Growth: While the demographic transition can boost labour productivity and economic growth, managing the ageing workforce and ensuring skill development for the younger population pose challenges.
What are the Opportunities of Demographic Transition in India?
- Enhanced Labour Productivity:
- The demographic transition can lead to a slowdown in population growth, potentially increasing the availability of capital resources and infrastructure per capita, thus boosting labour productivity.
- Reallocation of Resources:
- Decreasing fertility rates enable resources to be redirected towards education and skill development, enhancing human capital and workforce productivity.
- This shift may improve educational outcomes without additional state spending, as seen in states like Kerala where declining Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has reduced school enrollments.
- Increased Women Participation in Workforce:
- Lower fertility rates reduce the need for childcare, potentially leading to greater female workforce participation.
- Trends like higher female engagement in schemes such as the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee (MGNREGA) indicate a growing trend towards female labour force participation.
- Spatial Redistribution of Labour:
- Labour movement from regions with surplus to those with expanding industries can create spatial balance in the labour market.
- This trend may be bolstered by growing sectors in southern states, Gujarat, and Maharashtra attracting labour from northern states.
- Over time, this should improve working conditions, reduce wage discrimination for migrant workers, and address security concerns in receiving states through institutional safeguard
Way Forward:
- As highlighted in the Asia 2050 report, India stands to become a prominent economic force in the 21st century by leveraging opportunities such as sectoral and spatial workforce redistribution, skill enhancement, and increased women’s participation in the labour force.
- Effectively harnessing India’s demographic dividend can substantially enhance global economic competitiveness.
- The shifting population dynamics underscore the importance of policy formulation, especially in healthcare, education, and skill advancement.
- Policies must be tailored to meet the unique requirements of women and other marginalised segments, promoting inclusive growth and development
UPSC Civil Services Examination, Previous Year Questions (PYQs)
Prelims:
Q1. In the context of any country, which one of the following would be considered as part of its social capital? (2019)
(a) The proportion of literates in the population
(b) The stock of its buildings, other infrastructure and machines
(c) The size of population in the working age group
(d) The level of mutual trust and harmony in the society
Ans: (d)
Q2. India is regarded as a country with a “Demographic Dividend”. This is due to (2011)
(a) Its high population in the age group below 15 years
(b) Its high population in the age group of 15-64 year
(c) Its high population in the age group above 65 years
(d) Its high total population
Ans: (b)
Mains:
Q1. Discuss the main objectives of Population Education and point out the measures to achieve them in India in detail. (2021)
Q2. ‘’Empowering women is the key to control the population growth.’’ Discuss. (2019)
Q3. Critically examine whether growing population is the cause of poverty or poverty is the main cause of population increase in India. (2015)
FAQs
1. What is the Demographic Transition Model (DTM), and how does it apply to India?
The DTM is a model used to explain the transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates in a population over time. India is experiencing this transition, moving from a stage of high birth and death rates (Stage 2) to lower rates (Stage 3). This shift is influenced by factors like improved healthcare, education, and economic development.
2. What factors contribute to India’s demographic transition?
Several factors contribute to India’s demographic transition. These include advancements in healthcare leading to reduced infant mortality rates, increased access to family planning methods, rising levels of education especially among women, urbanization leading to changes in lifestyle and family size preferences, and economic changes influencing family planning decisions.
3. What are the implications of India’s demographic transition?
India’s demographic transition brings both opportunities and challenges. On one hand, a declining birth rate can lead to a demographic dividend, where the proportion of working-age population increases relative to dependents, potentially boosting economic growth. On the other hand, managing this transition requires addressing issues like providing employment opportunities for the growing workforce, ensuring equitable access to education and healthcare, and adapting social security systems to support an aging population.
4. How does India’s demographic transition impact its economy?
India’s demographic transition can have significant economic implications. With a growing working-age population relative to dependents, there is potential for increased productivity and economic growth. However, realizing this potential requires investments in education, healthcare, and job creation to harness the demographic dividend. Additionally, addressing challenges such as unemployment and underemployment among the youth is crucial for sustainable economic development.
5. What policies are in place to manage India’s demographic transition?
India has implemented various policies to manage its demographic transition, including family planning programs, initiatives to promote education, healthcare schemes targeting maternal and child health, and measures to promote skill development and job creation. Additionally, urban planning strategies are being developed to accommodate the influx of people into cities. However, there is a need for continued efforts to address inequalities in access to resources and services and to ensure that the benefits of the demographic transition are inclusive and sustainable.
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