People are fundamental to the existence of society, the economy, and culture. India’s current population is 1.3242 billion (as of 2016), making it the second-highest in the world. This population plays a crucial role in shaping our socio-economic structure and contributing to the diverse cultural landscape of the country.
India’s population, by numbers, may overtake the population of China by 2027 (as per the projections made by UN’s Population Division), to make India the most populous nation of the world.
A large population can strain a country’s limited resources and lead to various socio-economic challenges. This is often viewed as a drawback because it can impede development and impact the quality of life for the people.
While a large population can pose challenges, having a significant portion in the working-age category can be advantageous. India, with its young, educated, and productive population, is considered a global leader in terms of human resources. This demographic advantage contributes not only to the country’s development but also extends its impact to other nations. In this perspective, the population is viewed as an asset for the economy, representing the country’s greatest resource rather than a liability.
POPULATION SIZE AND DISTRIBUTION
- The current population of India contributes to 17% of the global population.
- As of the 2011 Census, Uttar Pradesh has a population of 199.8 million, showing an increase from 166.2 million in the 2001 census. The state’s population comprises 104.5 million males and 95.3 million females. In contrast, states like Sikkim and Lakshadweep have much lower populations, with 0.5 million in Sikkim and only 60,000 people in Lakshadweep, highlighting the uneven distribution of population across the country.Â
- This distribution is influenced by varying population densities in different regions.
- Factors Influencing the Distribution of Population:
- Geographical Factors
- Economic Factors
- Social and Cultural Factor
- Demographic factors
- Political factors
Malthusian Theory of Population Growth
The English political economist Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834) postulated that while human population grew in a geometric progression (i.e., like 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 etc.), the resources (read agricultural base) grew at an arithmetic progression, and hence the resources would never be sufficient to sustain the population growth and humanity was doomed to poverty, unless some preventive measures were taken to check the population growth. He stated that natural calamities were actually nature’s way of checking this unsustainable rise in human population.
- However, later on, researches did refute his theory stating that resources do not grow in a modest arithmetic progression, but at a much higher rate due to technological innovations. The experience of European countries provided the most effective refutation of his theory.
- In the latter half of the nineteenth century, and by the end of the first quarter of the twentieth century, birth rates declined, and outbreaks of epidemic diseases were being controlled. Malthus’s predictions proved false because both food production and standards of living continued to rise despite the rapid growth of population.
MARX’S RESPONSE TO MALTHUS’ THESIS
- Karl Marx went one step further and argued that starvation was caused by the unequal distribution of wealth and its accumulation by capitalists. It has nothing to do with the population.
- The population is dependent on economic and social organization. The problems of overpopulation and limits to resources, as enunciated by Malthus, are inherent and inevitable features associated with the capitalist system of production.
- He does not believe in natural laws controlling the population. According to him, capitalism created population growth in order to create a vast pool of cheap labor.
Theory of Demographic Transition:
The theory postulates a particular pattern of demographic change from a high fertility and high mortality to a low fertility and low mortality when a society progresses from a largely rural agrarian and illiterate society to a dominant urban, industrial, literate and modern Society.
It is typically viewed as a three-stage process:
- That the decline in immortality comes before the decline in fertility.
- that the fertility eventually declines to match mortality.
- that socio-economic transformation of a society takes place simultaneously with its demographic transformation.
FAQs
FAQ 1: What is the Theory of Population Growth?
A: The Theory of Population Growth refers to several theories that aim to explain how and why the population size of humans changes over time. The most famous of these is the Malthusian Theory, proposed by Thomas Malthus in the late 18th century, which suggests that populations grow exponentially, while food supply grows at an arithmetic rate, leading to inevitable shortages. Other theories include the Demographic Transition Theory, which describes population changes over time in relation to economic development and social changes, moving from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates.
FAQ 2: What is the Malthusian Theory of Population Growth?
A: Thomas Malthus proposed the Malthusian Theory in his work “An Essay on the Principle of Population” (1798). He argued that population growth tends to outpace the growth of food supply because populations grow geometrically (e.g., 1, 2, 4, 8, 16), while food supply increases arithmetically (e.g., 1, 2, 3, 4, 5). According to Malthus, this imbalance would lead to food shortages, disease, and other disasters that would eventually reduce the population to a more sustainable level. Malthus believed that moral restraint, disease, famine, and war were natural checks on population growth.
FAQ 3: What is the Demographic Transition Theory?
A: The Demographic Transition Theory proposes that countries pass through four stages of demographic evolution, corresponding to changes in birth rates, death rates, and overall population growth as they develop from pre-industrial to industrialized economic systems.
- Stage 1: High birth and death rates with slow population growth.
- Stage 2: Death rates drop due to improvements in healthcare and sanitation, leading to rapid population growth.
- Stage 3: Birth rates begin to decline as societies become more urbanized and children become less economically valuable, leading to a slowing of population growth.
- Stage 4: Both birth and death rates are low, stabilizing the population growth.
Some theorists have proposed a fifth stage, where birth rates fall below death rates, leading to a decline in population.
FAQ 4: How do modern theories of population growth differ from Malthusian and Demographic Transition theories?
A: Yes, modern theories often incorporate factors such as technology, globalization, and policy changes, which can significantly affect population dynamics. For instance:
- Neo-Malthusian Theory: Adapts Malthus’ ideas to modern contexts, emphasizing the role of family planning, contraception, and the potential for sustainable development to address the issues of overpopulation.
- Ecological Models: Focus on the carrying capacity of the environment and the interaction between human populations and their ecosystems, considering how technological advances can increase the Earth’s carrying capacity.
- Unified Theory of Population Dynamics: Attempts to integrate demographic transition theory with economic and sociological theories, suggesting that changes in population size and structure are closely linked to changes in the economic system and family structures.
FAQ 5: What are some criticisms of population growth theories?
A: Critics argue that both Malthusian and Demographic Transition theories may oversimplify complex social, economic, and environmental interactions. Specific criticisms include:
- Malthusian Theory: Critics argue that Malthus failed to anticipate technological advancements that would significantly increase food production and distribution, allowing populations to grow without the dire consequences he predicted.
- Demographic Transition Theory: Critics point out that it may not universally apply to all countries due to variations in cultural, socioeconomic, and historical contexts. Additionally, it assumes a linear progression that may not account for fluctuations caused by economic crises, wars, or pandemics.
- Modern Theories: While more inclusive of various factors affecting population growth, critics of modern theories often point to their complexity and the difficulty in making accurate predictions due to the unpredictable nature of technological innovation, policy changes, and global events.
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