Tropical cyclones, also known as hurricanes or typhoons depending on their location, have long been a force of nature to reckon with. However, in recent years, there has been a concerning trend indicating that these storms are becoming more severe. Characterized by intense winds, torrential rainfall, and devastating storm surges, tropical cyclones pose a significant threat to coastal communities and inland regions alike.
HOW CYCLONES ARE FORMED
- Formation and Initial Development Stage:
- In the initial phase, a warm sea experiences significant evaporation, leading to the creation of a moist and turbulent atmosphere.
- Atmospheric instability persists, further fueling the development of the system.
- Mature Phase:
- As the system progresses, the warm air ascends and expands at the tropopause level.
- Compression of air leads to the formation of a warm “Eye” at the center of the cyclone.
- Modification and Decay:
- Eventually, the cyclone begins to weaken as its primary source of warm, moist air diminishes or is suddenly interrupted.
Factors Contributing to the severity of Tropical Cyclones:
- Climate Change: The phenomenon of climate change, characterized by rising global temperatures, leads to warmer sea surface temperatures. This increase in temperature provides more energy to tropical cyclones, allowing them to intensify more rapidly and become more powerful. An example of this is seen in Cyclone Mocha in the Bay of Bengal.
- Warmer Ocean Waters: The warming of the Indian Ocean, attributed to climate change, results in higher sea surface temperatures. These warmer waters provide additional heat and moisture, serving as a catalyst for the development and strengthening of cyclones. For instance, the increasing sea surface temperatures over the Arabian Sea contribute to the intensification of cyclones, as observed in the case of Cyclone Tauktae.
- Sea Level Rise: The rise in sea levels, another consequence of climate change, exacerbates the impact of tropical cyclones. Higher sea levels allow storm surges to penetrate farther inland, resulting in more extensive coastal flooding and damage. Hurricanes, for example, are causing more intense rainfall and increased coastal flooding due to rising sea levels.
- Changing Wind Patterns: Alterations in atmospheric circulation patterns due to climate change can influence the trajectory of cyclones, directing them towards more vulnerable regions. These changes in wind patterns can also contribute to the intensification of cyclones by facilitating favorable conditions for their development.
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN INDIA
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has reported that 2022 witnessed the second-highest number of extreme weather events since 1902. Several factors contributed to this situation:
- Persistence of Intense La Niña Conditions: La Niña, characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, persisted strongly, influencing global weather patterns.
- Abnormal Warming of the East Indian Ocean: Unusual warming of the East Indian Ocean exacerbated weather extremes, contributing to the intensity of extreme events.
- Negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): The negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole, characterized by cooler waters in the western Indian Ocean and warmer waters in the eastern Indian Ocean, affected weather patterns, leading to extreme events.
- Southward Movement of Monsoon Depressions: Most monsoon depressions and lows moved southward, altering the typical monsoon trajectory and impacting rainfall distribution.
- Pre-monsoon Heating over the Himalayan Region: Increased pre-monsoon heating over the Himalayan region resulted in glacier melting, further exacerbating extreme weather conditions.
The occurrence of a “triple-dip” La Niña, spanning three consecutive winter seasons, has contributed to the prolonged La Niña phase, intensifying its impact on weather patterns in India.
A shift in monsoon weather systems has been observed, with systems moving across central parts of the country instead of Northwest India. This change has led to excess rainfall in states such as Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, and parts of Maharashtra, while adversely affecting West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh, which are experiencing their worst monsoon season in decades.
Experts anticipate that these changes are likely to persist, resulting in continued extreme weather events across the South Asian region.
The implications of these extreme weather events extend globally, with South Asia experiencing severe floods in countries like Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan, while China grapples with extensive drought conditions.
FAQs: Tropical Cyclones Becoming More Severe
1. How are cyclones formed?
- Cyclones form over warm ocean waters through a process involving significant evaporation, creating a moist and turbulent atmosphere. Atmospheric instability further fuels their development, leading to the formation of a cyclonic system.
2. What factors contribute to the severity of tropical cyclones?
- Climate Change: Rising global temperatures lead to warmer sea surface temperatures, providing more energy for cyclones to intensify and become more powerful.
- Warmer Ocean Waters: Increased sea surface temperatures due to climate change fuel the development and strengthening of cyclones.
- Sea Level Rise: Higher sea levels allow storm surges to penetrate farther inland, causing more extensive coastal flooding and damage during cyclones.
- Changing Wind Patterns: Alterations in atmospheric circulation patterns can steer cyclones towards more vulnerable areas and contribute to their intensification.
3. Can you provide examples of how climate change affects cyclones?
- Cyclone Mocha in the Bay of Bengal intensified due to rising sea surface temperatures, showcasing the impact of climate change on cyclone severity.
- The intensification of cyclones, such as Cyclone Tauktae, over the Arabian Sea is attributed to increasing sea surface temperatures caused by climate change.
4. What impact does climate change have on extreme weather events in India?
- Climate change has led to the persistence of intense La Niña conditions, abnormal warming of the East Indian Ocean, negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and southward movement of monsoon depressions.
- Increased pre-monsoon heating over the Himalayan region has resulted in glacier melting and exacerbated extreme weather conditions.
- These changes contribute to more frequent and severe extreme weather events, affecting regions across India and neighboring countries like Bangladesh and Pakistan.
5. Are these changes expected to continue in the future?
- Experts anticipate that the observed changes in weather patterns and the severity of cyclones will persist due to ongoing climate change.
- Continued warming of ocean waters and alterations in atmospheric circulation patterns are likely to result in more frequent and intense extreme weather events in the South Asian region and beyond.
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