Dam Wars in South Asia: How Water is Becoming a Geopolitical Weapon

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South Asia is quietly entering a new kind of conflict zone. Not over land. Not over borders. But over rivers.

What this really means is simple: dams are no longer just development projects. They are strategic weapons.

From China’s Mohmand Dam in Pakistan to India’s Shahtoot Dam in Afghanistan, water is now shaping diplomacy, power balance, and even national security across the region.

Let’s break it down.

What triggered this Dam War?

The immediate trigger was the Pahalgam terror attack.
After this, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan.

That single move shook the entire hydropolitical balance of South Asia.

The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960 and brokered by the World Bank, divided river control between India and Pakistan:

River System	Controlled By
Indus, Jhelum, Chenab (Western Rivers)	Pakistan
Ravi, Beas, Sutlej (Eastern Rivers)	India

It also created:

• A Permanent Indus Commission
• A three-tier dispute resolution mechanism

So when India suspended the treaty, it wasn’t symbolic. It was structural.

Why is Pakistan extremely vulnerable?

Pakistan is one of the most river-dependent economies in the world.

Nearly 80 percent of its agriculture depends on the Indus river system.
Major cities like Lahore, Multan, Faisalabad and Karachi depend on Indus water.
Major hydropower plants like Tarbela and Mangla sit on these rivers.

So when treaty protections weaken, Pakistan faces:

• Food insecurity
• Power shortages
• Urban water stress

That’s when China stepped in.

China’s Mohmand Dam: Strategic support to Pakistan

China has been building the Mohmand Hydropower Project in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa since 2019.

After India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, China accelerated construction.

This dam:

• Generates 800 MW electricity
• Supplies 300 million gallons of clean water
• Reduces Pakistan’s water stress

But here’s the real story.

This is not charity.
This is geopolitics.

The Mohmand Dam is part of China Pakistan Economic Corridor CPEC, which itself is part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

What China gains:

• Stronger control over Pakistan
• Expanded footprint in South Asia
• Reduced Indian influence

India’s counter move: Shahtoot Dam in Afghanistan

India responded with its own hydropower strategy.

It accelerated work on the Shahtoot Dam in Afghanistan, built on the Maidan River, a tributary of the Kabul River.

Here’s why this matters.

The Kabul River flows:
Afghanistan → Pakistan

So Pakistan is a lower riparian state here.

Once Shahtoot is operational:

• Kabul River flow to Pakistan can drop by 16 to 17 percent
• Water stress in Pakistan increases

At the same time, Afghanistan gets:

• Drinking water for 2 million people
• Irrigation for 4000 hectares
• Supply for Kabul’s new city

India gains goodwill in Afghanistan
And leverage over Pakistan

Why Indus Treaty suspension alone is not enough

India cannot fully block Pakistan’s water via Indus because:

Projects like:

• Kishanganga (Jhelum)
• Baglihar (Chenab)

are run-of-the-river projects, not large storage dams.

They don’t have the capacity to stop massive water flow.

So India’s real leverage comes from Kabul River, not Indus.

The Brahmaputra risk: China holds the upper hand

This is where the danger becomes bigger.

The Brahmaputra River originates in Tibet.

So for Brahmaputra:
China is the upper riparian
India becomes the lower riparian

Just like India can pressure Pakistan using Kabul and Indus,
China can pressure India using Brahmaputra.

This is what makes South Asia a hydro-strategic flashpoint.

Water is now a strategic weapon

Dams are no longer just for electricity or irrigation.

They are now used for:

• Diplomatic pressure
• Strategic leverage
• Regional dominance

This is called weaponization of water.

And the biggest risk is this:
India, Pakistan and China are all nuclear powers.

When water becomes a tool of coercion between nuclear states, the risks multiply fast.

Final takeaway for UPSC

South Asia is shifting from geopolitics to hydropolitics.

Rivers are becoming:

• Strategic assets
• Tools of foreign policy
• Sources of conflict

Understanding Indus Waters Treaty, Kabul River, Brahmaputra, CPEC, and dam diplomacy is now essential for:

• Prelims
• Mains GS II and GS III
• Essay
• International relations

This is no longer a geography topic.
It is a national security issue.

Check out our GS Geography Course – Click Here

FAQs

#IndusWatersTreaty: What is the Indus Waters Treaty and why is it important for India and Pakistan?

#MohmandDam: How does the Mohmand Dam strengthen China Pakistan strategic cooperation?

#ShahtootDam: Why is India building the Shahtoot Dam in Afghanistan?

#BrahmaputraRiver: How can China use the Brahmaputra River against India in geopolitics?