India is on a remarkable journey, transforming a potential demographic disaster into a demographic dividend. This shift means that instead of struggling with the challenges of a large, youthful population, India is harnessing the energy and potential of its young people to drive economic growth and development. By investing in education, healthcare, and job creation, the country is turning its vast population into a powerful workforce, poised to boost productivity, innovation, and prosperity. This transformation highlights how strategic planning and effective policies can turn a looming crisis into a significant advantage, shaping a brighter future for the nation.
Tags: GS – 2,- Human Resource- Skill Development- HealthPoverty- Education, GS – 3, Employment- Mobilization of Resources- Inclusive Growth
Context:
- India reflects on its demographic evolution and the challenges and disparities faced since 1989.
- In 1968, American biologist Paul Ralph Ehrlich published “The Population Bomb,” raising serious concerns about India’s ability to feed its growing population.
- The Green Revolution in the late 1960s and early 1970s significantly changed the scenario by dramatically increasing food production through the introduction of high-yielding crop varieties, improved irrigation, and the use of fertilisers and pesticides.
What is meant by Demographic Dividend?
Definition:
- The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) defines the demographic dividend as “the economic growth potential that can result from shifts in a population’s age structure, mainly when the share of the working-age population (15 to 64) is larger than the non-working-age share of the population (14 and younger, and 65 and older).”
India’s Demographic Dividend:
- Window of Opportunity: India entered the demographic dividend opportunity window in 2005-06 and will remain there till 2055-56.
- Young Population: Approximately 68% of the population falls between the ages of 15 and 64, and 26% falls within the 10-24 age group, making India one of the youngest countries globally.
- Median Age: India has a relatively young population with a median age of 28.4 years.
- Working-Age Population by 2030: By 2030, India will have 1.04 billion working-age persons.
- Dependency Ratio: India’s dependency ratio is expected to be the lowest in its history by 2030 at 31.2%.
- Global Workforce Contribution: India is projected to contribute about 24.3% of the incremental global workforce over the next decade, making it the largest provider of human resources in the world.
Implications:
- Economic Growth: A larger working-age population can potentially lead to higher economic growth if adequately educated, skilled, and employed.
- Human Resources: India’s significant contribution to the global workforce positions it as a crucial player in international markets.
- Policy Focus: To fully capitalise on this demographic dividend, India needs to focus on:
- Education and Skill Development: Enhancing the quality and reach of education and vocational training.
- Healthcare: Ensuring access to quality healthcare to maintain a healthy workforce.
- Employment Opportunities: Creating sufficient job opportunities to absorb the growing workforce.
- Gender Equality: Promoting equal participation of women in the workforce.
What are the Factors that Can Lead to Demographic Disaster?
- High Unemployment Rate:
- Labor Force Growth: An increase in population leads to a corresponding rise in the labour force, resulting in a significant portion of the population experiencing unemployment.
- India Employment Report 2024: India’s working population increased from 61% in 2011 to 64% in 2021 and is projected to reach 65% in 2036.
- However, the percentage of youth involved in economic activities declined to 37% in 2022.
- India Employment Report 2024: India’s working population increased from 61% in 2011 to 64% in 2021 and is projected to reach 65% in 2036.
- Labor Force Growth: An increase in population leads to a corresponding rise in the labour force, resulting in a significant portion of the population experiencing unemployment.
- Ageing Population:
- Rapid Growth: India’s elderly population is growing rapidly, with a decadal growth rate of 41%.
- India Ageing Report 2023 (UNFPA): By 2050, over 20% of India’s population will be elderly, posing challenges related to healthcare, social, and financial security.
- Rapid Growth: India’s elderly population is growing rapidly, with a decadal growth rate of 41%.
- Resource Scarcity:
- Water Stress: Rapid population growth negatively affects resource usage and access.
- Examples: Cities like Delhi and Bangalore and the state of Rajasthan face severe water stress.
- Central Water Commission Survey: India’s per capita water availability has dropped from 1,816 cubic metres in 2001 to approximately 1,486 cubic metres in 2024, indicating increasing water stress.
- Water Stress: Rapid population growth negatively affects resource usage and access.
- Low Living Standards:
- Public Expenditures: Rapid population growth makes it difficult for low-income and lower-middle-income countries to afford increases in public expenditures on social sectors, negatively impacting the quality of life.
- Vicious Cycle of Poverty: Limits access to education, healthcare, and job opportunities, undermining the demographic dividend.
- High Fertility Rates and Social Inequality: Increase economic burdens, while poor infrastructure and economic instability stifle growth.
- Unplanned Urbanisation:
- Issues: Overburdened infrastructure, traffic congestion, pollution, slum growth, housing challenges, and environmental degradation.
- Urban Population Growth: India’s urban population is expected to grow from 410 million in 2014 to 814 million by 2050.
- The country is projected to add four new megacities by 2030, potentially exacerbating unplanned urbanisation and related issues.
- Urban Population Growth: India’s urban population is expected to grow from 410 million in 2014 to 814 million by 2050.
- Issues: Overburdened infrastructure, traffic congestion, pollution, slum growth, housing challenges, and environmental degradation.
What Should India Further Do to Reap its Demographic Dividend?
- Education and Skills Development:
- Enhance Education Quality and Accessibility:
- Implement policies that improve the quality of education, especially in rural and marginalised areas.
- Ensure universal access to primary and secondary education with a focus on inclusivity.
- Promote Vocational Training:
- Align vocational training programs with industry demands.
- Establish more skill development centres, especially in underserved regions.
- Invest in Digital Literacy:
- Integrate digital literacy and technology skills into the education curriculum.
- Provide access to digital tools and internet connectivity to students and workers.
- Enhance Education Quality and Accessibility:
- Employment Generation
- Conducive Business Environment:
- Simplify regulatory frameworks to attract investments.
- Provide tax incentives and support to small and medium enterprises (SMEs).
- Encourage Entrepreneurship:
- Offer financial support, mentorship, and incubation services to startups.
- Develop policies that encourage innovation and entrepreneurship among youth.
- Support for Gig and Platform Workers:
- Develop social security schemes for gig and platform workers.
- Recognize and formalise the gig economy to ensure worker protections.
- Conducive Business Environment:
- Healthcare and Well-being
- Strengthen Healthcare Infrastructure:
- Increase investment in healthcare facilities, particularly in rural areas.
- Improve the quality and reach of primary healthcare services.
- Focus on Preventive Healthcare:
- Implement widespread nutrition programs to address malnutrition.
- Promote vaccination and health awareness campaigns.
- Mental Health Support:
- Integrate mental health services into primary healthcare.
- Raise awareness and reduce stigma associated with mental health issues.
- Strengthen Healthcare Infrastructure:
- Inclusive Growth and Gender Equality
- Promote Gender Equality:
- Implement policies that ensure equal access to education and employment for women.
- Provide incentives for companies to hire and promote women.
- Enhance Social Cohesion:
- Support community-based programs that reduce social inequalities.
- Encourage initiatives that foster social inclusion and diversity.
- Increase Women’s Workforce Participation:
- Create childcare support systems to enable women to join the workforce.
- Enforce laws against workplace discrimination and harassment.
- Promote Gender Equality:
- Infrastructure Development
- Robust Infrastructure Investments:
- Prioritise development in transport, energy, and digital infrastructure.
- Focus on sustainable and environmentally friendly projects.
- Urban Planning Improvements:
- Develop comprehensive urban planning strategies to manage migration and urbanisation.
- Invest in affordable housing and public transportation.
- Sustainable Development:
- Ensure that infrastructure projects support long-term economic growth and environmental sustainability.
- Robust Infrastructure Investments:
- Shifting from Agriculture to Formal Sector
- Transition Workforce to Formal Employment:
- Create incentives for businesses to hire from the informal sector.
- Provide training and reskilling programs for workers transitioning from agriculture to formal employment.
- Address Disguised Employment:
- Encourage mechanisation and modern farming techniques to reduce labour dependency in agriculture.
- Promote sectors like manufacturing and services that can absorb the labour force.
- Transition Workforce to Formal Employment:
- Policy and Governance
- Comprehensive Policy Formulation:
- Develop policies that specifically address the demographic dividend.
- Ensure these policies are data-driven and evidence-based.
- Strengthen Governance Mechanisms:
- Improve transparency and accountability in implementing initiatives.
- Foster public-private partnerships to leverage resources and expertise.
- Collaboration and Systemic Solutions:
- Encourage collaboration between government, private sector, and civil society.
- Promote initiatives that address systemic challenges and drive inclusive growth.
- Comprehensive Policy Formulation:
| UPSC Civil Services Examination, Previous Year Questions (PYQs) Prelims: Q:1 To obtain full benefits of demographic dividend, what should India do? (2013) a) Promoting skill development b) Introducing more social security schemes c) Reducing infant mortality rate d) Privatisation of higher education Ans: (a) Q:2 Consider the following specific stages of demographic transition associated with economic development: (2012) 1. Low birth rate with low death rate 2. High birth rate with high death rate 3. High birth rate with low death rate Select the correct order of the above stages using the codes given below: a) 1, 2, 3 b) 2, 1, 3 c) 2, 3, 1 d) 3, 2, 1 Ans: (c) Mains: Q:1 “Demographic Dividend in India will remain only theoretical unless our manpower becomes more educated, aware, skilled and creative.” What measures have been taken by the government to enhance the capacity of our population to be more productive and employable? (2016) Q:2“While we flout India’s demographic dividend, we ignore the dropping rates of employability.” What are we missing while doing so? Where will the jobs that India desperately needs come from? Explain. ? (2014) |
Source: TH
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q: What is a demographic disaster?
- Answer: A demographic disaster happens when a country’s population grows rapidly without proper planning or resources. This can lead to problems like unemployment, poverty, and lack of basic services such as education and healthcare.
Q: What is a demographic dividend?
- Answer: A demographic dividend occurs when a country experiences a beneficial shift in its population structure. This usually happens when the working-age population grows larger compared to the dependent population (children and elderly), leading to more economic productivity and growth opportunities.
Q: How can a demographic disaster turn into a demographic dividend?
- Answer: A demographic disaster can turn into a demographic dividend by investing in education, healthcare, and job creation. When a country ensures its young population is healthy, educated, and employed, they contribute more effectively to the economy, turning a potential disaster into a positive outcome.
Q: Why is education important in achieving a demographic dividend?
- Answer: Education is crucial because it equips people with the skills and knowledge needed to secure good jobs and contribute to the economy. Educated individuals are more likely to innovate, start businesses, and boost productivity, which are key factors in achieving a demographic dividend.
Q: What role does healthcare play in converting a demographic disaster to a demographic dividend?
- Answer: Healthcare plays a vital role by ensuring that the population, especially the young workforce, remains healthy and capable of working. Access to good healthcare reduces mortality rates and improves the overall well-being of people, enabling them to be more productive and contribute to economic growth.
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