Determinants of Population Change – UPSC Indian Society Notes

The change in the population size of a country is influenced by three main factors: births, deaths, and migration. Births add to the population, while deaths decrease it. Migration—people moving in or out of a country—has a relatively smaller impact on national population growth, but it can affect population at local or regional levels. It’s important to focus on fertility (births) and mortality (deaths) to better understand how a population changes over time.

Fertility

The fertility rate represents the number of live births per 1,000 women within the age group typically considered as child-bearing years, which is usually from 15 to 49 years old.

The crude birth rate provides a general average for an entire population and might not reflect differences among various age groups. To address this, demographers often compute age-specific rates to accurately capture variations across different age brackets, which can significantly impact the interpretation of indicators.

Total Fertility Rate: It refers to the total number of live births that a woman would have if she lived through the reproductive age group and had the average number of babies in each segment of this age group as determined by the age-specific fertility rates for that area. Also, it is necessary here to differentiate between the terms ‘fecundity’ and ‘fertility’. Fecundity refers to the physiological capacity to reproduce. Fertility, on the other hand, refers to the actual reproductive performance of an individual or a group.

Total Fertility Rate Formula

The TFR is calculated by adding up all the age-specific fertility rates, multiplying this sum by five (the width of the age-group interval), and then dividing by 1,000.

TFR = (Sum of ASFR x 5) / 1,000

National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) on Total Fertility Rate

• Overall fertility in the NFHS 5 survey fell below the replacement level of two children per woman, down from 2.2 in the previous survey.
• The overall fertility rate is two children per woman, down from 2.2 in 2015-16.
• The fertility rate is currently below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.

Determinants of High Fertility

The TFR for Indian women stood at 2.1.This is high and several factors contribute to the same:

1.  Religious Ideologies.
2. The universality of the institution of marriage.
3. Early marriage and early child-bearing.
4. Preference for sons ingrained in the Indian culture.
5. Lack of right of self-determination with reference to reproduction.
6. High infant and child mortality rates – (unsatisfactory health, low nutritional status and poverty) also contributes to a large family size.
7. Economic, social, cultural as well as religious value of children in Indian society.
8. Absence of adoption of methods of conception control.

None of these factors work in isolation. It is the combination of several factors that contribute towards the high fertility rate in India.

Traditional practices in India often influence the way couples plan their families. For example, breastfeeding is widely practiced, which can delay conception. There are also customs during the postpartum phase where couples may abstain from sexual activity. In certain regions, couples may go to the woman’s parental home for childbirth, which leads to delaying subsequent pregnancies. Moreover, there are specific days where cohabitation is avoided. It’s a social norm that a woman might face criticism if she has children after becoming a grandmother.

Implications of High Fertility

Apart from contributing in a big way to the population problem of the country, high fertility affects the family and, in turn, society in many ways.

• Women often spend their most productive years dedicated to childbearing and raising children, which limits their opportunities for personal growth and development in other areas. This situation can lead to feelings of frustration due to the lack of exploration in other avenues for self-expression and personal development.
• Having too many children can have detrimental effects on both the health of women and their children. Caring for a large number of children can exhaust the limited physical and emotional resources of these women, putting significant strain on their well-being.
• The responsibility of supporting a large family often falls on the breadwinner, causing immense pressure. Constantly striving to provide for basic needs can be draining. To cope with these challenges, some men turn to alcohol consumption. This can worsen the family’s financial and emotional stability.
• The responsibility of supporting a large family often falls on the breadwinner, causing immense pressure. Constantly striving to provide for basic needs can be draining. To cope with these challenges, some men turn to alcohol consumption. This can worsen the family’s financial and emotional stability.
• In such situations, the girl child faces the most hardship. She might not attend school or drop out early to assist her mother with household chores and care for younger siblings while the mother is away for work. Early marriage might also force her into childbearing, perpetuating a harmful cycle.
• The children, both boys and girls, in a large family are thus often denied the joys of childhood, and are pushed into adult roles at a very early age.

Mortality

Mortality definition is the frequency of death in a given population.

The mortality rate, also known as the death rate, is a measure of the number of deaths (in general or due to a specific cause) per unit of time in a given population, scaled to the size of that population.

Morbidity rate

• The rate at which a disease occurs in a population is referred to as the morbidity rate.
• These illnesses can range from the short-term to the long-term.
• The rate of morbidity can be used to assess a population’s health and healthcare needs.

Measurement of Mortality

Out of many measures, the three basic measures of mortality are: the crude death rate, the expectation of life at birth, and the infant mortality rate.

1. Crude Death Rate:It is the ratio of the total registered deaths occurring in a specified calendar year to the total mid-year population of that year, multiplied by 1000.
2. Expectation of Life at Birth: The average expectation of life at birth is a good measure of the level of mortality because it is not affected by the age structure of the population. The term “average expectation of life” or life expectancy represents the average number of years of life which a cohort of new-born babies (that is, those born in the same year) may be expected to live if they are subjected to the risks of death at each year, according to the age-specific mortality rates prevailing in the country at the time to which the measure refers. This measure is complicated to calculate but easy to understand.

The life expectancy at Birth in India was 67.3 years for male and 69.6 years for female in 2011-2015.

3. Infant Mortality Rate: Infants are defined in demography as all those children in the first year of life who have not yet reached age one. In countries like India, where health conditions are poor, infant deaths account for a substantial number of all deaths. The infant mortality rate is, therefore, often used as an indicator for determining the socio-economic status of a country and the quality of life in it.

The reasons why the Infant Mortality Rate remains high are:

• Socio-economic factors: The challenges of poverty, caste, low education levels, and limited literacy significantly hinder the access to healthcare for millions of people.
• Early marriages: Approximately 45% of girls aged 20-24 get married before they turn 18, and 20% of them have already had a child by the age of 18. Babies born to young mothers are more likely to face health issues like malnutrition. Moreover, young girls who are married often face dominance from their husbands and in-laws, and they find it hard to speak up for their rights. For example, Uttar Pradesh has the highest number of young mothers and poor healthcare indicators in the country.
• Unequal healthcare access: In India, private hospitals mainly serve the wealthy in cities, while rural areas rely on local health centers. Unfortunately, these centers often lack basic facilities like beds, clean water, and adequate staff. There’s a shortage of doctors, with one doctor for over 51,000 people in some areas, as budget constraints lead to unfilled vacancies.
• Lack of Immunization: Immunization is a cost-effective method to lower Infant Mortality Rate (IMR). However, India faces challenges in ensuring high immunization rates. It holds the world’s largest number of unvaccinated children and ranks second after Nigeria for children not vaccinated against measles. Vaccines have globally saved millions of infants from diseases like measles, polio, diarrhea, and pneumonia.
• Misuse of technology: The number of girls per 1,000 boys in the age group of 0-6 years declined from 927 to 914 between 2001 and 2011. This decrease was primarily attributed to the misuse of technology and laws.
• Political factors: The division of healthcare as a state subject leads to challenges in forming policies and utilizing the allocated budget since the allocation is managed by the central government. Additionally, a lack of reliable data hampers the ability to make informed and effective policy decisions in the healthcare sector.
• Maternal Mortality Rate: The maternal mortality ratio indicates the risk connected to each pregnancy, reflecting the obstetric risk. It refers to the death of a woman while pregnant or within 42 days of terminating a pregnancy, regardless of the pregnancy’s duration or site, caused by or made worse by the pregnancy or its management, excluding accidental or incidental causes. This ratio is calculated as the number of maternal deaths per 100,000 live births.

Some of the major reasons for a high MMR are:

• Poor infrastructure at the primary healthcare level: Insufficient nutrition during pregnancy, combined with inadequate access to institutional delivery, contributes to high Maternal Mortality Ratios (MMRs).

In India, only 18,000 district hospitals have institutional facilities. On average, 22 deliveries take place per day. This means that there is not even a gap of one hour between surgeries.

• Socio-economic factors: One of the reasons for high maternal mortality rates is the prevalence of child marriages. According to the WHO, the risk of maternal mortality is notably higher for adolescent girls under 15 years of age, and complications during pregnancy and childbirth are more common among girls aged 10-19 compared to women aged 20-24.
• In less developed countries, women typically have more pregnancies on average compared to women in developed countries. Consequently, their lifetime risk of death due to pregnancy-related causes is higher. 
• The lifetime risk of maternal death, which is the probability of a 15-year-old woman eventually dying from a maternal cause, is substantially lower in high-income countries, estimated at 1 in 5400. In contrast, in low-income countries, this risk increases significantly to 1 in 45.
• Patriarchy: Patriarchy often results in the neglect of women during crucial periods like pregnancy and post-childbirth. After giving birth, a mother’s health is vital, but unfortunately, about 18% of mothers suffer from gastro-intestinal diseases because they breastfeed on an empty stomach. Furthermore, approximately one in every three girls in India experiences hysterical symptoms, largely due to calcium and iron deficiencies. It’s noteworthy that according to SECC data, only 12.08% of families are headed by females.
• Mass illiteracy: Mass illiteracy contributes significantly to these issues. When people lack literacy, they are often unaware of the availability of good healthcare facilities, the necessity of accessing them, government schemes supporting healthcare, and the significance of opting for institutional deliveries.
• Political factors: For example, the lack of financial resources directly affects the execution of laws. In cases where funds were assigned, they were not disbursed as planned. Additionally, the oversight and monitoring of policy and law implementation are inadequate. There haven’t been rigorous measures in place to monitor these efforts effectively.

High rates of infant and maternal mortality indicate backwardness and poverty. Development is associated with significant reductions in these rates as medical facilities, education, awareness, and prosperity levels increase.

Migration

Apart from birth and death there is another way by which the population size changes. When people move from one place to another, they move from place of origin to the place of destination.

In simple terms, when people leave a place, that area sees a decrease in population. At the same time, where these people move to, that place experiences an increase in population.

Migration means people moving from one place to another. This movement can be permanent, temporary, or seasonal. People might move from rural to rural areas, rural to cities, cities to cities, or cities back to rural areas.

1. Immigration: Migrants who move into a new place are called Immigrants.
2. Emigration: Migrants who move out of a place are called Emigrants.

Migration is often seen as an attempt to improve the balance between the population and available resources. People move to seek better economic and social opportunities. There are two main sets of factors that influence migration.

1. Push factors:- People might leave their place of origin for various reasons such as unemployment, poor living conditions, political unrest, harsh climate, natural disasters, epidemics, and socio-economic backwardness, finding these areas less appealing for living. 
2. Pull factors:- People might be drawn to the place of destination due to reasons such as better job opportunities, improved living conditions, peace and stability, greater security of life and property, and a more pleasant climate compared to their place of origin.

Migration can be categorized into internal, which happens within a country, and international, occurring between different countries. Internal migration doesn’t alter the population size but has a notable impact on redistributing the population within the country, affecting its composition and distribution.

According to the International Migration Stock report (released by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs), India with 17.5 million international migrants has emerged as the top source of international migrants, constituting 6.4% of the world’s total migrant population.

FAQs

1. What are the main determinants of population change?

Answer: The main determinants of population change include birth rates, death rates, immigration, and emigration. Birth rates (the number of live births per 1,000 people per year) and death rates (the number of deaths per 1,000 people per year) are natural factors that influence population size, while immigration (the arrival of individuals from other areas) and emigration (the departure of individuals to other areas) are migratory factors that also play a crucial role. The balance among these factors determines whether a population grows, declines, or remains stable over time.

2. How does the birth rate affect population growth?

Answer: The birth rate, often measured as the number of live births per 1,000 people in a given year, directly influences population growth. When the birth rate is higher than the death rate, the natural increase is positive, leading to population growth. High birth rates can contribute to rapid population growth, especially if accompanied by declining death rates, as has been observed in many parts of the world with improvements in healthcare and living conditions. However, when birth rates decline, this can slow down population growth or even lead to population decline if the birth rate falls below the death rate.

3. What role does immigration play in population change?

Answer: Immigration can significantly impact population change by increasing the size of a population when the number of incoming individuals exceeds the number of people leaving (emigration). It can offset declines in population due to low birth rates or high death rates and contribute to the diversity and economic dynamics of a population. Immigration policies, economic opportunities, and social factors in both the origin and destination countries influence migration patterns. In some countries, immigration is a key factor in population growth and demographic change.

4. Can you explain how death rates influence population size?

Answer: Death rates, or mortality rates, refer to the number of deaths in a given population per 1,000 individuals per year. A high death rate can lead to a decrease in population size, especially if it surpasses the birth rate. Death rates can be influenced by factors such as diseases, healthcare quality, nutritional status, and living conditions. Over time, improvements in healthcare and living standards have generally led to a decrease in death rates globally, contributing to population growth. However, in situations where death rates remain high, such as in countries facing health crises or natural disasters, population size can be negatively affected.

5. How do emigration and immigration differ in their impact on population change?

Answer: Emigration and immigration are two sides of the same coin, representing the movement of people out of and into a country, respectively. Emigration decreases a country’s population as people leave to live in another country, which can lead to a reduction in the workforce and potential demographic shifts, such as an aging population. On the other hand, immigration increases a country’s population as people arrive from other countries. This can lead to population growth, a more diverse society, and changes in the demographic profile, such as a younger population or an increase in the labor force. The net effect of emigration and immigration on a country’s population depends on the balance between these two flows.

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