The Iran-Israel conflict stands as a pivotal axis of instability within the intricate geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. Rooted in historical, ideological, and strategic differences, this enduring confrontation encapsulates the deep-seated tensions between two regional powers vying for dominance and security. From proxy wars and covert operations to overt hostility and diplomatic brinkmanship, the conflict manifests through multifaceted dimensions, reverberating across the region and beyond. As Iran asserts its influence through a network of allies and proxies, Israel remains vigilant, viewing Tehran’s ambitions and nuclear program as existential threats. Against a backdrop of shifting alliances, international interventions, and simmering sectarian tensions, the Iran-Israel conflict embodies the complexities and perils defining the contemporary Middle Eastern dynamics.
Tags: GS – 2, Bilateral Groupings & Agreements– Groupings & Agreements Involving India and/or Affecting India’s Interests- Effect of Policies & Politics of Countries on India’s Interests — International Treaties & Agreements
For Prelims: Iran, Israel, Middle East,1979 Islamic Revolution, Stuxnet, Gaza Strip, Red Sea Crisis, Israeli air defence system, OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries), Two State Solution, Gulf Cooperation Council, European Union, United Nations, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)
For Mains: Historical Background of Relations Between Iran and Israel, Key Events that Led to Iran’s Attack on Israel, Impact of Iran- Israel Conflict on the World
Context:
- The geopolitical concerns of heightened tensions in the volatile West Asia region after Iran’s drone and missile attack on Israel.
- Iran launched a significant attack on Israel, deploying over 300 projectiles, including approximately 170 drones, cruise missiles, and over 120 ballistic missiles. This action was widely seen as retaliation for a deadly strike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus, Syria.
- The attack signals a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, moving beyond previous skirmishes involving Israel and Hamas.
The Historical Background of Relations Between Iran and Israel:
- Iran-Israel Ties Before 1979:
- Iran was among the earliest nations in the Middle East to acknowledge Israel’s formation in 1948.
- While Arab opposition triggered the first Arab-Israeli conflict that year, Iran abstained from involvement.
- After Israel’s victory, Iran established diplomatic relations with the Jewish state. Israel, led by Prime Minister David Ben Gurion, devised the “periphery doctrine,” aiming to counter Arab animosity by cultivating alliances with non-Arab, primarily Muslim, nations like Turkey and pre-revolution Iran.
- Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, Iran’s ruler from 1941 to 1979, pursued a pro-Western foreign policy despite Arab economic boycotts, maintaining diplomatic ties with Israel and even exporting oil to the country during this period.
- The 1979 Revolution:
- After the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran transformed into a religious state, altering its perception of Israel as an occupier of Palestinian territories.
- Ayatollah Khomeini, Iran’s Supreme Leader, branded Israel as “Little Satan” and the US as the “Great Satan,” viewing them as regional interlopers.
- Iran aimed to expand its influence, challenging US-aligned powers like Saudi Arabia and Israel in the region.
- Shadow War After 1979:
- After 1979, tensions between Israel and Iran escalated, leading to a shadow war characterised by indirect conflict through proxies and strategic attacks.
- In the early 2010s, Israel conducted targeted strikes on Iranian facilities and nuclear scientists to hinder Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
- In 2010, the US and Israel reportedly developed Stuxnet, a computer virus, to sabotage Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility, marking the first known cyberattack on industrial infrastructure.
- Iran has been accused of supporting militant groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, which are hostile towards Israel and the US.
- Concerns about escalating conflict have arisen due to Iran’s support for anti-Israel and anti-US militant groups in recent months.
The Key Events that Led to Iran’s Attack on Israel:
- Withdrawal from Iran’s Nuclear Deal: In 2018, Israel praised the US decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, which it had lobbied against for years, considering it a significant move.
- Assassination of Iran’s Army General: In 2020, Israel supported the US drone strike in Baghdad that killed General Qassem Soleimani, a top Iranian military commander, prompting retaliatory missile attacks from Iran on Iraqi bases housing American troops.
- Hamas Missile Attack: In October 2023, Hamas, an Iran-backed group, launched a missile attack on Israel, prompting Israeli airstrikes on Gaza in response to perceived threats from Hamas operating in civilian areas.
- Israel Raids and Attacks Medical Facilities: In November 2023, Israel conducted raids and targeted medical facilities in Gaza, citing Hamas presence and activities within these areas, leading to concerns about humanitarian consequences.
- Houthi Group’s Red Sea Incident: In November 2023, the Iran-backed Houthi group from Yemen conducted a helicopter landing on a cargo vessel in the Red Sea, triggering the ‘Red Sea Crisis’ and causing disruptions to supply chains.
- Escalation of Israel’s Ground Offences: In December 2023, Israel intensified ground offensives in Gaza, resulting in a rise in casualties and refugees, prompting calls for a swift resolution to the conflict.
- Airstrike on the Iranian Embassy: Suspected Israeli airstrikes targeted the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus, resulting in casualties among Islamic Revolutionary Guard officers, though Israel neither confirmed nor denied responsibility.
- Iran’s Missile Attack on Israel: In April 2024, Iran launched a missile attack on Israel in retaliation for an alleged Israeli strike on Iran’s consulate in Syria, marking a significant escalation in direct hostilities between the two nations.
- Israel’s Multi-layered Air Defence: Israel’s Defense Forces claimed to have successfully intercepted the majority of incoming projectiles from Iran, with support from the US, UK, France, and other allies, showcasing the effectiveness of its air defence systems.
The Iran-Israel War May Impact the World:
- Possible Israeli Response May Increase Regional Escalation:
- Given Israel’s view of a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential threat, the possibility of retaliation remains a significant factor in decision-making.
- If diplomatic efforts fail to de-escalate tensions, military action may become the preferred option, raising the risk of broader regional conflict.
- Potential to Disrupt Oil Supplies:
- As the third-largest OPEC crude oil producer, Iran’s escalating tensions with Israel could disrupt global crude oil supplies.
- India, heavily reliant on crude oil imports, may face market volatility and inflation due to supply disruptions, impacting investor sentiment and economic stability.
- Spike in Inflation and Capital Outflow:
- Geopolitical tensions could drive up commodity prices globally, leading to inflation and capital outflows from riskier assets like Indian stocks to safer options like gold.
- Bond prices may decline, credit costs could rise for companies, and stock markets may falter amid heightened uncertainty.
- Trade and Travel Disruptions:
- An all-out conflict between Israel and Iran could disrupt global trade and travel, particularly in the aviation and shipping sectors.
- Temporary closures of airspace by regional countries may impact India’s exports to Europe and disrupt supply chains.
- India’s Strategic Dilemma:
- India faces a strategic dilemma due to its relationships with both Israel and Iran, balancing defence cooperation with Israel and economic ties with Iran.
- Maintaining stability in the Middle East is crucial for India’s energy security and diaspora welfare, influencing its diplomatic and operational decisions.
The Possible Solutions to De-escalate the Iran – Israel Conflict:
- Sustainable Ceasefire and Two-State Solution: Israel should promptly accept a sustainable ceasefire in Gaza, allowing international humanitarian aid and adhering to UN resolutions for a two-state solution. A two-state solution offers the best path forward for long-term security and stability in the region, although it presents significant challenges.
- Dialogue and Diplomacy: International mediation should facilitate direct talks between Israel and Iran, encouraging trust-building and cooperation. Neutral third parties, such as the EU or UN, could facilitate dialogue between Iran and Israel, fostering understanding and collaboration.
- Addressing Nuclear Proliferation Concerns: Iran should uphold the terms of the JCPOA and permit international inspections of its nuclear facilities to ensure compliance. In return, Israel could acknowledge Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear energy and commit to refraining from military action against Iranian nuclear sites.
- Regional Cooperation: Cooperation between Iran and Israel within regional organisations like the Arab League or GCC could address shared security interests and promote stability. Establishing a comprehensive regional security framework, including arms control and conflict resolution mechanisms, can enhance stability in the Middle East.
- Long-Term Vision for the Middle East: Regional powers should collaborate to create a comprehensive security architecture, addressing historical grievances and fostering peace. Resolving underlying issues like territorial disputes and religious extremism is essential for sustainable peace and reconciliation.
- Normalisation of Relations: Iran and Israel could take steps towards diplomatic normalisation, such as exchanging ambassadors and reopening embassies. People-to-people exchanges and peace agreements, akin to those between Israel and some Arab states, can further facilitate normalisation efforts.
Conclusion:
Hence, the persistent instability in the Middle East has far-reaching implications for both the Global South and Global Governance. It is imperative for the international community to advocate for non-violence and prioritise diplomatic dialogues as the primary means to address the crisis. Implementing responsible and equitable policies is essential to mitigate long-term instability and address the root causes of the region’s challenges.
UPSC Civil Services Examination, Previous Year Question (PYQ)
Prelims
Q:1 Mediterranean Sea is a border of which of the following countries? (2017)
- Jordan
- Iraq
- Lebanon
- Syria
Select the correct answer using the code given below:
(a) 1, 2 and 3 only
(b) 2 and 3 only
(c) 3 and 4 only
(d) 1, 3 and 4 only
Ans: C
Q:2 Which one of the following countries of South-West Asia does not open out to the Mediterranean Sea? (2015)
(a) Syria
(b) Jordan
(c) Lebanon
(d) Israel
Ans: B
Q:3 The term “two-state solution” is sometimes mentioned in the news in the context of the affairs of (2018)
(a) China
(b) Israel
(c) Iraq
(d) Yemen
Ans: B
Mains
Q:1 “India’s relations with Israel have, of late, acquired a depth and diversity, which cannot be rolled back.” Discuss. (2018)
Source: (TH)
FAQs
Q: What is the root cause of the Iran-Israel Conflict?
The Iran-Israel Conflict primarily stems from geopolitical rivalries, ideological differences, and historical animosities. Iran, governed by a Shiite Islamic regime, often challenges Israel’s existence due to its support for Palestinian causes and its rejection of Israel’s right to exist. Israel, on the other hand, perceives Iran as a significant security threat due to its support for militant groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, as well as its nuclear ambitions.
Q: How does the Iran-Israel Conflict impact the stability of the Middle East?
The conflict between Iran and Israel exacerbates existing tensions in the Middle East and contributes to regional instability. Proxy conflicts between their respective allies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, often escalate into larger regional crises. Additionally, the competition for influence between Iran and Israel fuels sectarian divisions and undermines efforts for peace and cooperation in the region.
Q: What are the major flashpoints in the Iran-Israel Conflict?
Major flashpoints in the Iran-Israel Conflict include Syria, Lebanon, and the Gaza Strip. In Syria, Iran supports the Assad regime, while Israel conducts airstrikes to prevent Iranian entrenchment and the transfer of advanced weaponry to Hezbollah. In Lebanon, Hezbollah, backed by Iran, poses a significant threat to Israel’s northern border. In Gaza, Iran provides support to Hamas, which frequently engages in hostilities with Israel.
Q: How does the Iran-Israel Conflict impact global security?
The Iran-Israel Conflict has global implications, particularly concerning nuclear proliferation and energy security. Iran’s pursuit of nuclear capabilities and Israel’s determination to prevent it from acquiring such capabilities heighten the risk of nuclear escalation in the region. Additionally, the volatility in the Middle East resulting from the conflict can disrupt global energy markets, leading to economic instability worldwide.
Q: What are potential avenues for resolving the Iran-Israel Conflict?
Resolving the Iran-Israel Conflict requires diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalation, confidence-building measures, and addressing the underlying grievances of both parties. Dialogue and negotiation, possibly facilitated by international mediators, could help build trust and find common ground on issues such as regional security, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and nuclear non-proliferation. However, achieving lasting peace will likely require significant political will and compromise from all involved parties.
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