- A population refers to a distinct group of individuals, whether constituting a nation or a collective with shared characteristics.
- India, boasting a total population of 1,210.2 million as per the 2011 census, stands as the world’s second-most populous country, trailing only China.
- Despite encompassing a mere 2.4% of the world’s land area, India accommodates approximately 17.5% of the global population.
- While India’s population growth has notably decelerated in recent years, it continues to outpace China and is anticipated to surpass it by 2028, as per the United Nations population report.
- Beyond 2030, India is poised to become the most populous nation globally.
Population data across the globe are systematically collected through censuses.
A census count provides a comprehensive snapshot of the population at a specific moment, encompassing a broad spectrum of demographic, social, and economic attributes.
- India initiated its census journey in 1872; however, the initial efforts were neither simultaneous nor comprehensive.
- The first complete and synchronous census covering the entire nation and offering vital demographic data took place in 1881.
- Subsequently, the census has been conducted at regular intervals of ten years.
- The 2011 census marks the fifteenth enumeration in India’s history, dating back to 1872, and the seventh since gaining independence.
The population growth in India has witnessed significant shifts since 1901, marked by distinct phases that highlight demographic changes. Key turning points occurred during the census years of 1921, 1951, and 1981, dividing India’s demographic history into four phases:
Period of Stagnant Population (1901-1921):
- During the late 19th century and the early 20th century until 1921, India experienced sporadic, irregular, and slow population growth.
- The term “stagnant” characterizes this period, as growth rates were comparatively low.
- High birth rates were offset by equally high death rates, attributed to epidemics like influenza, plague, smallpox, cholera, food shortages, loss of lives in World War I, and emigration to Africa.
- The census of 1921 recorded a rare negative growth rate of -0.31%, making it the ‘Demographic Divide’ in India’s demographic history.
Period of Steady Growth (1921-1951):
- Population increased from 251 million to 361 million, marking a growth of 47.3%.
- Improved health and sanitation conditions after 1921 contributed to a decline in mortality rates.
- The distribution system ensured timely food supply to drought and famine-stricken areas.
- Although death rates decreased, the crude birth rate remained abnormally high, resulting in “mortality-induced growth.”
Period of Rapid High Growth (1951-1981):
- Post-1951, there was a steep fall in mortality rates, while fertility rates remained high, leading to rapid population growth, often termed the “Period of Population Explosion.”
- Accelerated developmental activities and improved health facilities contributed to unprecedented growth.
- Living conditions improved, and death rates declined, marking this as a “fertility-induced growth” period.
Period of High Growth Rate with Definite Signs of Slowing Down (1981-2011):
- Despite high growth rates, a declining trend began after 1981, signaling a new era in India’s demographic history.
- Birth rates declined due to state-led birth control efforts and people’s inclination for smaller families.
- Although the growth rate has been declining since 1971, India’s population growth rate remains higher compared to countries like China, the USA, and Brazil.
In summary, India’s population growth has traversed distinct phases influenced by mortality, fertility, and government interventions, reflecting the complex interplay of demographic factors over the years.
Indian Population Growth in Line with Demographic Transition Theory:
During the 19th century, India experienced fluctuating but stagnant population growth until 1921. Subsequently, the country underwent all phases of demographic transition, currently believed to be in the final phase characterized by declining fertility.
Despite entering the final phase, the UN Department of Economics and Social Affairs estimates that India’s population will continue to increase until 2050, after which a decline is expected by the end of the 21st century.
Spatio-Temporal Variations in Population Growth:
The average population growth rate of 17.64% during 2001-11 conceals variations across space and time, necessitating an assessment of these differences.
- Southern states and others, including Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, West Bengal, Odisha, and Maharashtra, recorded growth rates between 11-16%.
- Dadar and Nagar Haveli, Daman & Diu registered the highest growth rates of 55.5% and 53.54%, respectively, during 2001-11.
- A notable decline in growth rate occurred in Nagaland, with a shift from 64.53% in 1991-2001 to a negative growth rate of -0.47% in 2011.
- Kerala, in an advanced stage of demographic transition, recorded the second minimum growth rate of 4.86%.
- States with high growth rates exceeding 20% include Bihar, Jammu & Kashmir, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Meghalaya, and Arunachal Pradesh.
Growth of Child Population in India:
The age group of 0-6 years holds significance in demographic trends. In 2011, the total number of children in this group was 158.8 million. Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan together constitute 52% of India’s child population.
Census 2021:
The Census of 2021 in India will be digital, utilizing a mobile phone app for data collection by school teachers doubling as enumerators.
A Census portal has been developed, allowing for self-enumeration, where individuals can fill in details with relevant codes.
The field activities related to Census 2021 have been postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Density of Population:
- Population density, expressed as the number of people per square kilometer, is a key measure for understanding distribution variations.
India’s population density in 2011 was 382 people/square km, consistently increasing since 1921.
Different categories based on density include extremely low, low, moderate, high, and very high-density areas.
State-Level Patterns in India:
- Areas of Extremely Low Density:
- States/UTs: Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Andaman and Nicobar.
- Areas of Low Density:
- States/UTs: Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh.
- Areas of Moderate Density:
- States/UTs: Assam, Tripura, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Odisha, Karnataka, Jharkhand.
- Areas of High Density:
- States/UTs: Punjab, Haryana, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Uttar Pradesh.
- Areas of Very High Density:
- States/UTs: Delhi, Bihar, West Bengal.
- Other UTs: Lakshadweep, Daman & Diu, Puducherry, Chandigarh.
Age Structure and Population Pyramid: Understanding Demographics
A population pyramid is a graphical representation commonly used to illustrate age structure. An ideal pyramid is characterized by the following features:
The 0-14 age group constitutes 25-30% of the population.
Less than 10% of the population is over the age of 65.
The majority, 60%, falls within the ages of 15 to 65, indicating a substantial working-age population.
- Current Imbalances and Realities:
- Presently, both developed and developing countries exhibit highly imbalanced age structures. For instance, in India, a historical high birth rate has led to a significant proportion of the adult population, constituting over 60% of the country’s growth.
- Economic Implications:
- The age structure of a population provides insights into future economic growth prospects. The working and economically productive population consists of adults, while the elderly and children are considered dependent.
- Ideal Age Pyramid:
- An ideal age pyramid reflects a balanced distribution, with a significant working-age population and fewer dependents. This structure is conducive to economic growth and is often referred to as the demographic dividend.
Significance of Age Structure in India:
In India, analyzing the population pyramid reveals significant insights into age structure changes:
The under-15 age group has decreased from 42% in 1971 to 23% by 2026.
Conversely, those over 60 years old are projected to increase from 5% to 12% during the same period.
The working-age group has risen from 53% to 64% over this time frame, representing the demographic dividend.
Economic and Policy Considerations:
An age structure resembling that of East Asian countries in the 1990s is beneficial for the economy. It results in a lower dependency ratio and a larger workforce available for contributing to economic growth.
Age structure helps identify economic needs and address challenges posed by changing demographics.
Regional demographic differences are highlighted, facilitating federalism by enabling units of a country to devise economic growth policies based on their age structure.
For instance, states like Kerala with a higher proportion of the population in the older age group require a focus on health needs, while states like Uttar Pradesh with a larger younger population need emphasis on childcare and education.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
1. What does “population” refer to in this context?
A: A population refers to a distinct group of individuals, whether constituting a nation or a collective with shared characteristics.
2. How populous is India, and how does it compare globally?
A: As of the 2011 census, India has a total population of 1,210.2 million, making it the world’s second-most populous country, trailing only China.
3. Despite having only 2.4% of the world’s land area, why is India significant in terms of population?
A: India accommodates approximately 17.5% of the global population, showcasing its demographic prominence.
4. What are the projections for India’s population growth compared to China?
A: While India’s population growth has slowed, it is expected to surpass China by 2028, becoming the most populous nation globally after 2030.
5. How is population data collected globally?
A: Population data is systematically collected through censuses, providing a comprehensive snapshot of a population’s demographic, social, and economic attributes.
6. When did India initiate its census efforts, and how has it evolved over the years?
A: The census in India began in 1872, with the first complete and synchronous census conducted in 1881. Subsequent censuses have been carried out regularly every ten years.
7. What are the key phases in India’s population growth history?
A: India’s population growth has witnessed distinct phases: Stagnant Population (1901-1921), Steady Growth (1921-1951), Rapid High Growth (1951-1981), and High Growth Rate with Signs of Slowing Down (1981-2011).
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