The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted a global sea level rise of about one metre by AD 2100. What would be its impact in India and the other countries in the Indian Ocean region? (15 Marks,250 Words)

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has sounded a dire warning: global sea levels are projected to rise by about one meter by the year 2100. This forecast, driven primarily by melting polar ice caps and thermal expansion of seawater due to rising temperatures, presents a monumental challenge to nations worldwide. Among the regions facing significant consequences, the Indian Ocean region stands particularly vulnerable. India, with its extensive coastline spanning over 7,500 kilometers, would confront severe ramifications. Coastal cities like Mumbai, Chennai, and Kolkata, which are economic powerhouses and home to millions, would be at risk of inundation. The rich agricultural lands of the Sundarbans delta, vital for food security, would face increased salinity intrusion, jeopardizing crop yields and livelihoods. Small island nations like the Maldives and Seychelles are projected to face existential threats, with large portions of their landmass submerged. Beyond India, countries bordering the Indian Ocean, including Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Indonesia, would grapple with similar challenges. These nations, already burdened with socioeconomic vulnerabilities, would bear the brunt of disrupted coastal ecosystems, loss of infrastructure, and mass displacement of populations. Furthermore, the impacts of sea level rise extend beyond immediate coastal areas, affecting regional weather patterns, biodiversity, and economies reliant on maritime resources. Urgent and coordinated efforts at the national and international levels are imperative to mitigate these impacts, including robust adaptation measures, investment in resilient infrastructure, and ambitious climate action to curb greenhouse gas emissions. Failure to address these challenges could lead to irreversible consequences, jeopardizing the stability and prosperity of the Indian Ocean region and beyond.

Answer:  

Introduction:     

The sixth assessment report of IPCC(UN body for assessing climate change)has predicted that global sea levels are estimated to rise 1.1 metres by 2100 if the current emissions are not restricted <2° Celsius above pre industrial levels. With the era of ‘global boiling’, increasing warming of oceans, melting ice sheets of Greenland and West Antarctica, the rising sea level will have adverse impact on island nations and low lying coastal cities.  

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Reason of Sea-Level Rise Prediction: 

1. Thermal Expansion: Rising global temperatures cause seawater to expand as it absorbs heat, significantly contributing to sea-level rise.According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), thermal expansion is responsible for about 40-50% of the observed sea-level rise since 1900. 
2. Melting Polar Ice Caps: Glaciers and ice sheets melt in Antarctica and Greenland releases freshwater into the ocean, accelerating sea-level rise.For example, the Larsen C ice shelf in Antarctica broke off an iceberg twice the size of Luxembourg in 2017, contributing directly to rising sea levels. 
3. Glacial Retreat: Higher temperatures lead to glacier retreat worldwide, with meltwater flowing into the ocean and adding to rising sea levels. Ex: The Gangotri Glacier in the Himalayas has been receding at an alarming rate, affecting freshwater supply and contributing to sea-level rise. 
4. Increased Carbon Emissions: Heavy industrial activities, particularly in China’s coal belt and the United States, release massive amounts of CO2, accelerating global warming and, consequently, ice melt and thermal expansion. 
5. Tectonic Activity: Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions can induce sudden, localised sea-level fluctuations. The 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake, for instance, brought significant, albeit temporary, changes to sea levels in the region, leaving lasting impacts on local geographies. 
6. Land Subsidence:Urban centres like Jakarta experience land subsidence due to excessive groundwater extraction for daily use, causing the land to sink and resulting in a relative sea-level rise. This situation compounds the challenges posed by global sea-level rise. 

Impact on India and Indian Ocean Region: 

India: 

1. Population Displacement:Low-lying regions in states like West Bengal and Kerala may experience extensive human migration due to persistent flooding and loss of habitable land. This could lead to the emergence of “climate refugees,” placing added strain on urban resources. 
2. Saline Ingress: Higher sea levels can lead to saltwater intrusion into freshwater sources, affecting drinking water and agriculture. 
3. Coastal Erosion: Major cities like Mumbai, Kolkata, and Chennai face infrastructure damage and disruptions, with key ports and industrial zones at risk. 
4. Island Territories: India’s island territories, including Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep, are at risk of inundation and infrastructure damage. 

5. Biodiversity: Coastal ecosystems, such as mangroves and coral reefs, are threatened by sea-level rise, impacting biodiversity and storm surge protection. 
6. Agricultural Loss: The Sundarbans Delta, the lowland rice system of Kerala, and similar areas vital for rice cultivation and unique biodiversity are under the threat of increasing salinity. This jeopardises the agricultural suitability of the land, impacting the livelihoods of numerous farmers. 
7. Impact on Fisheries: The alteration in sea levels, coupled with fluctuations in water temperatures, may result in shifts within marine ecosystems. This poses a particular challenge for states like Kerala and Goa, where fisheries play a substantial role in the economy. 
8. Infrastructure Threat:  Key infrastructures, such as ports, are also in jeopardy. For instance, the Jawaharlal Nehru Port in Mumbai, a crucial hub for India’s cargo handling, could confront operational difficulties due to the rising sea levels 

Countries of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR): 

1. Small Island Nations: Vulnerable nations like the Maldives and Seychelles are exceptionally exposed to sea-level rise. 
2. Low-Elevation Countries: Low-lying coastal regions in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Indonesia face more frequent and severe flooding, affecting agriculture and human settlements. 
3. Coral Reefs: Coral reef-based countries face deterioration due to climate change’s combined effects of heat, acidity, and sea-level rise. 
4. East African Coast: East African nations, including Kenya, Tanzania, and Somalia, may experience coastal erosion, flooding, and infrastructure damage, exacerbating existing instability. 
5. Change in Maritime Boundaries: Sea-level rise may lead to shifts in maritime boundaries, potentially causing disputes among regional countries. 

Measures Taken in India 

• Coastal Regulation Zone (CRZ) Notification, 2019 
• Integrated Coastal Zone Management project (ICZMP) 
• Coastal Management Information System (CMIS) 
• India’s National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) 
• Airborne Lidar Terrain Mapping (ALTM) elevation data 
• Coastal Management Information System (CMIS) 

Conclusion: 

Hence,The IPCC’s projection of a one-metre sea level rise by 2100 is a significant threat and opportunity. Collaboration, innovation, and global cooperation are vital to address this challenge. Achieving sustainable development involves SDG targets, community involvement, and individual contributions through LiFE. 

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