Contents
Introduction
The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960 between India and Pakistan, has often been called one of the most successful water-sharing agreements in the world. But six decades later, many experts argue that the treaty has outlived its utility.
With climate change, demographic shifts, and geopolitical tensions reshaping South Asia, questions are being raised on whether this treaty still serves India’s strategic and environmental interests.
Historical Background of the Indus Waters Treaty
The Indus Waters Treaty was brokered by the World Bank between Jawaharlal Nehru and General Ayub Khan in 1960.
Under the agreement:
- The three western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab — were allocated to Pakistan.
- The three eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej — were given to India.
- Around 80% of the total water was allocated to Pakistan and only 20% to India.
This 80:20 ratio has since been criticized as being outdated and disconnected from today’s climatic, demographic, and agricultural realities.
Why the Indus Waters Treaty Has Outlived Its Utility
1. Changing Climate and Glacial Melt
Institutions like ICIMOD predict a 40–70% decline in Indus basin water by 2100 due to melting glaciers and shifting monsoons.
Even the Karakoram Anomaly — once stabilizing glacier melt — is weakening.
Yet, the treaty lacks any adaptive clause for climate change realities.
2. Demographic and Agricultural Imbalance
In 1960, Pakistan’s population was about 45 million, while India’s Indus basin states had 20 million.
Today, Pakistan’s population has grown to 245 million, and India’s Indus basin states (Punjab, Himachal, J&K, Haryana) together host over 180 million people.
Despite this, India continues to get only 20% of the basin’s share.
3. Neglect of Kabul and Chitral Rivers
Pakistan also receives nearly 20 million acre-feet of water from Afghanistan’s Kabul and Chitral rivers, which weren’t factored into the treaty.
This further distorts the logic of the 80:20 division.
4. Flawed River Partitioning Model
Global examples like the Columbia River Treaty (US–Canada) or the Mekong Agreement follow a “whole-basin management” approach.
The Indus Treaty, however, divided rivers geographically rather than ecologically — a major conceptual flaw.
5. Pakistan’s Political Weaponization of the Treaty
Pakistan has repeatedly bypassed the Permanent Indus Commission, taking disputes directly to the World Bank or International Court of Arbitration, politicizing what was meant to be a cooperative framework.
6. No Exit Clause or Flexibility
The treaty is permanent, with no clear withdrawal clause.
However, under Article 62 of the Vienna Convention, India has the right to seek renegotiation due to fundamental changes in circumstances.
The Way Forward
The Indus Waters Treaty was born from goodwill and post-Partition peace hopes.
But peace must be mutual.
With climate change, population pressure, and Pakistan’s continued hostility, it’s time for India to re-evaluate the treaty — not as aggression, but as a strategic correction rooted in environmental justice and national interest.
📘 UPSC Relevance
UPSC GS Paper 2 & 3 Topics Covered:
- India and its Neighbourhood Relations
- International Treaties & Agreements
- Environmental Governance
- Climate Change & Water Resources Management
Key Takeaways for UPSC Mains:
- Indus Waters Treaty: background, provisions, and challenges
- Climate change and river basin treaties
- India–Pakistan water-sharing dynamics
- Whole-of-basin approach and its global examples
Check out our Geography Optional Course – Click Here
💬 FAQs
- #UPSCGeography – What is the Indus Waters Treaty, and why is it important for UPSC preparation?
- #UPSCEnvironment – Why do experts say the Indus Waters Treaty has outlived its utility?
- #UPSCInternationalRelations – How has Pakistan used the Indus Waters Treaty in geopolitics?
- #UPSCMains – Should India withdraw from the Indus Waters Treaty?
