China-Taiwan Conflict – UPSC

The China-Taiwan Conflict stems from a civil war in the mid-20th century, with China viewing Taiwan as a breakaway province and Taiwan advocating for self-governance or independence. This unresolved dispute remains a potential flashpoint in the region.

Tags: GS Paper – 2-  Effect of Policies & Politics of Countries on India’s InterestsIndia and its Neighbourhood 

For Prelims: China-Taiwan Conflict, South China Sea, Taiwan Relations Act,1979, One China Policy, Philippines, India’s Act East Foreign Policy. 

For Mains: Significance of Taiwan for India, Stand of India on the Taiwan Issue. 

Context: The China- Taiwan conflict is a constant theme in international geopolitics. 

What is the Present Context of China-Taiwan Conflict? 

Historical Background: 

• Taiwan was initially under Chinese control during the Qing dynasty but was ceded to Japan after China’s defeat in the first Sino-Japanese war in 1895. 
• China regained sovereignty over Taiwan in 1945 following Japan’s defeat in World War II. However, the Chinese Civil War (1927-1950) between the Nationalist Party (Kuomintang) and the Communist Party of China (CPC) led to the nationalists retreated to Taiwan in 1949. 
• The roots of the Taiwan issue can be traced back to the aftermath of the Chinese Civil War, during which the Nationalist government established the Republic of China (ROC) on Taiwan, while the Communist Party proclaimed the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on the mainland. 

One-China Policy: 

• Both the PRC and the ROC claim to be the sole legitimate government representing all of China. The PRC maintains that Taiwan is an integral part of China and adheres to the One-China Policy, asserting sovereignty over the island. 
• The One-China Policy dictates that there is only one China, and Taiwan is part of it, with the PRC as its sole legal government. 

International Recognition: 

• The majority of countries, including the United States, recognize the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the legitimate government of China and adhere to the One-China Policy. 
• However, most nations maintain unofficial relations with Taiwan, engaging in economic and cultural exchanges without formally recognizing Taiwan’s sovereignty. 

Taiwan’s Identity: 

• Over time, Taiwan has developed its distinct identity, with its own government, constitution, and democratic system. Many Taiwanese people identify primarily as Taiwanese rather than Chinese, reflecting their unique cultural and historical background. 

Cross-Strait Relations: 

• Relations between Taiwan and mainland China have experienced periods of tension and cooperation, particularly in economic matters. While there have been efforts to improve relations, issues of sovereignty and political differences continue to strain the relationship. 

Military Threats: 

• China has not ruled out the use of force to reunify Taiwan with the mainland and has bolstered its military capabilities, including naval and missile forces. These actions have raised concerns in Taiwan and among other countries in the region about the potential for conflict. 

International Community: 

• The Taiwan issue remains a complex and sensitive topic in global diplomacy, with many nations navigating a delicate balance between their relations with China and their support for Taiwan’s security and democratic values 

Strategic Significance of Taiwan: 

1. Geopolitical Location: 

• Taiwan’s strategic position in the western Pacific Ocean, bordering China, Japan, and the Philippines, serves as a vital gateway to Southeast Asia and the South China Sea. 
• Its location is pivotal for global trade routes and security interests, influencing regional dynamics and power balances. 

2. Military Significance: 

• Due to its proximity to mainland China, Taiwan holds strategic importance in military planning for both China and other regional powers. Control over Taiwan would strengthen China’s ability to extend its military reach into the western Pacific, potentially impacting key US allies like Japan and South Korea. 

3. Economic Importance: 

• Taiwan is a significant player in the global economy, particularly in industries such as semiconductors and electronics. Its economy is deeply intertwined with regional and global supply chains, making it a linchpin for stability and economic security in the region. 
• Taiwan’s dominance in semiconductor production, accounting for a substantial share of global output, underscores its critical role in technological advancement and innovation. 

What are the Different Aspects of China-Taiwan Conflict in the Present Times? 

1. One China Policy Challenged: 

• The One China Policy dictates that countries must sever diplomatic ties with either the People’s Republic of China (PRC, Mainland China) or the Republic of China (ROC, Taiwan) to establish relations with the other. 
• Taiwan’s existing diplomatic relations and participation in intergovernmental organisations challenge this policy, with formal ties to 15 countries and substantial connections with others like Australia, Canada, EU nations, Japan, and New Zealand. 

2. Agreements/Exercises Countering China: 

• Initiatives such as the AUKUS security partnership (involving Australia, the UK, and the US) and the Malabar Exercise (involving the US, Japan, India, and Australia) are perceived as efforts to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region. 
• The Malabar Exercise aims to establish a sustainable coalition in the Indo-Pacific, addressing the strategic imbalance created by China’s economic and military prowess. 

3. Strategic and Defense Support to Taiwan by US: 

• Taiwan has bolstered its defence capabilities by procuring US weaponry, including upgraded F-16 fighter jets, armed drones, rocket systems, and Harpoon missiles. 
• The US has demonstrated its support for Taiwan through military manoeuvres, such as the deployment of the Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier group in the South China Sea, aimed at ensuring freedom of navigation and fostering maritime security partnerships. 

India’s Stand on the Issue: 

1. Recognizes One-China Policy:  

• India has adhered to the “One China” policy since 1949, acknowledging Taiwan and Tibet as integral parts of China.  
• However, India has used this policy to assert its own diplomatic stance, emphasising that if it accepts “One China,” China should reciprocate with a “One India” policy. 

2. Starting Diplomatic Relations: 

• Although India has refrained from explicitly mentioning its adherence to the One China policy in official documents since 2010, its engagement with Taiwan remains limited due to its diplomatic ties with China. 
• India and Taiwan do not maintain formal diplomatic relations; however, they have established representative offices in each other’s capitals since 1995, serving as de facto embassies. 

3. Opening Third TECC Centre in India: 

• Taiwan has announced its intention to inaugurate its third representative Taipei Economic and Cultural Centre (TECC) in Mumbai, India.  
• This move aims to strengthen economic ties and bilateral cooperation between Taiwan and India, facilitating increased engagement and collaboration in various sectors. 

US vis-a-vis China over Taiwan: 

• Anti-Secession Law: China enacted the Anti-Secession Law in 2005, outlining conditions under which it might use non-peaceful means to prevent Taiwan’s permanent separation from mainland China. 
• Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) 1979: The United States, under the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) of 1979, is obligated to provide assistance to Taiwan in the event of coercion or attack by China. 
• US Stand: The US has called on China to halt its military, diplomatic, and economic pressure on Taiwan and instead engage in meaningful dialogue with Taiwan’s democratically elected leaders. 

Recent Developments: 

• President Tsai’s election in 2016 marked the beginning of a pronounced pro-independence phase in Taiwan, which was further emphasised by her re-election in 2020. 
• Despite Taiwan’s significant economic interests, including investments in China, pro-independence groups are concerned that this economic reliance may impede their objectives. 
• Conversely, pro-reunification factions in both Taiwan and China aim to increase people-to-people exchanges, hoping to diminish the influence of pro-independence advocates over time. 

Why does India not Want the Conflict to Escalate? 

1. Expanding Trade Relations: 

• India and Taiwan have significantly increased trade since 2001, with discussions underway for a potential free trade agreement. Notably, Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation, a Taiwanese firm, has collaborated with the Tata Group to establish India’s inaugural semiconductor fabrication plant. 

2. Agreement on Worker Exchange: 

• A recent accord has been reached to send Indian labourers to Taiwan, signifying deepening ties between the two nations. India’s industries, critical supply chains, and expatriate communities are all vested in maintaining a peaceful status quo across the Taiwan Strait. 

3. Disruptions from Conflict: 

• Any military aggression by China against Taiwan would have dire consequences for India, severely impacting global trade with both China and Taiwan and causing disruptions across Asia and beyond. 
• Studies indicate that a conflict could result in significant economic setbacks, affecting crucial sectors like electronics and pharmaceuticals. 

4. Spillover Effects: 

• A conflict extending beyond Taiwan between China and the US could exacerbate existing tensions along the India-China border and disrupt industrial capacities regionally. Moreover, it could lead to nuclear escalation and destabilise the entire security architecture of the region. 

5. Impact on India’s Position: 

• The aftermath of a conflict could further weaken India’s international standing, particularly if China emerges as the dominant military power in the region. 
• It may prompt neighbouring countries to bolster their defence capabilities, potentially escalating tensions in regions like the Indian Ocean. 

Options for India in Managing Conflict: 

• Maintaining Military Balance: India can contribute to deterring conflict by ensuring a balanced military presence in the Taiwan Strait, dissuading China from resorting to military action. 
• Exploring Policy Options: India possesses various policy tools, including legal arguments, diplomatic coordination, and economic measures, to counter aggression and support Taiwan. These options can enhance India’s strategic position vis-a-vis China and deepen its cooperation with the US. 
• Reevaluating One-China Policy: India could reconsider its adherence to the One-China Policy, separating its relationship with mainland China from its stance on Taiwan, akin to China’s involvement in Pakistan occupied Kashmir. 
• Collaborative Approach: India, along with other global powers, should establish clear boundaries against any Chinese aggression towards Taiwan, recognizing the broader implications for regional stability and security. 

UPSC Civil Services Examination, Previous Year Question (PYQ) 

Mains 

Q:1 Evaluate the economic and strategic dimensions of India’s Look East Policy in the context of the post-Cold War international scenario. (2016) 

Q:2  “China is using its economic relations and positive trade surplus as tools to develop potential military power status in Asia”. In the light of this statement, discuss its impact on India as her neighbour. (2017) 

Q:3  The US is facing an existential threat in the form of China, that is much more challenging than the erstwhile Soviet Union. Explain (2021) 

Source: (TH) 

5 FAQs on China-Taiwan Conflict

1. What’s the core issue?

The core issue is the status of Taiwan. China considers Taiwan a breakaway province that must eventually be reunified with the mainland, even by force. Taiwan, however, considers itself a self-governing democratic state.

2. What’s the “One-China” policy?

The “One-China” policy is the principle that there is only one China, and Taiwan is part of it. Most countries maintain diplomatic relations with China only under this policy, though some unofficially acknowledge Taiwan.

3. Why are tensions rising?

Tensions have risen due to several factors: China increasing military drills near Taiwan, Taiwan’s growing desire for international recognition, and the US’s support for Taiwan’s self-defense.

4. Is there a risk of military conflict?

The risk is always present, but a full-scale invasion is considered unlikely by most analysts. Both sides suffer economic consequences from conflict, and the US would likely get involved.

5. How can the situation be resolved peacefully?

Peaceful resolution requires dialogue between China and Taiwan. This would involve acknowledging each other’s core interests and finding common ground. The US role in facilitating talks is crucial.

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