Israel and Palestine Conflict

The present status of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is marked by complex and unresolved issues, ongoing tensions, and competing narratives. Here are some key aspects of the present situation:

1. Israeli Settlements:

• Israel has continued to build and expand settlements in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and other areas considered legally Palestinian territory. The construction of Israeli settlements in these areas is a major point of contention, as it is seen by Palestinians and many in the international community as a major obstacle to a two-state solution. These settlements often lead to tensions and conflicts between Israelis and Palestinians.

2. Borders and Territorial Disputes:

• Israel declared in the 1980s that it would not return the Golan Heights to Syria and that it would not allow the West Bank to become part of an independent Palestinian state. These positions have remained significant obstacles to the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

3. Desired Borders:

• The pre-1967 borders, often referred to as the 1967 lines or the Green Line, are frequently desired by Palestinians as the basis for a future Palestinian state. This includes the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, and East Jerusalem. Israel, on the other hand, often opposes this position, and there are disputes over the exact borders of any potential two-state solution.

4. Oslo Accords (1993):

• The Oslo Accords marked a significant development in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. The agreement recognized the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) as the representative of the Palestinian people and included mutual recognition between the PLO and Israel. It also led to the establishment of the Palestinian Authority (PA) and limited self-rule for Palestinians in certain areas of the West Bank and Gaza Strip. However, the full implementation of the Oslo Accords and the establishment of a viable Palestinian state have not been realized.

5. Ongoing Conflict:

• The Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains unresolved, with sporadic violence and conflicts continuing to erupt. Issues such as security, borders, the status of Jerusalem, the right of return for Palestinian refugees, and the future of Israeli settlements are among the core issues that have yet to be resolved.

6. International Diplomacy:

• Efforts by the international community to mediate and facilitate peace negotiations have continued, but achieving a comprehensive peace agreement has been elusive. Various peace plans and initiatives have been proposed by different countries and organizations, but none have led to a final resolution.

7. Broader Regional Dynamics:

• The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is intertwined with broader regional dynamics and conflicts in the Middle East. Shifting alliances, regional rivalries, and the influence of external powers further complicate the situation.

8. Humanitarian and Socioeconomic Challenges:

• The ongoing conflict has had significant humanitarian and socioeconomic consequences for both Israelis and Palestinians. Issues such as access to resources, economic development, and the welfare of the population remain pressing concerns.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to be a complex and deeply entrenched issue with significant consequences for the region and beyond. Achieving a lasting and comprehensive resolution remains a major challenge.

2nd Oslo Accords 1995 :

1999. a) A lasting resolution was anticipated by 1999.
2000. b) Israel would leave Gaza and the West Bank. The 1996 terror campaign by Hamas prevented this from being done.
2001. c) The evacuated region (portions of Gaza and the West Bank) was to be governed by a Palestinian Legislative Council, which was decided upon in 1993 and directly elected by all adult Arabs. In 1996, elections were conducted, and Yasser Arafat was elected president of Palestine.

Consequences:

1. Israeli fanatics resisted, and Israel's PM was put to death in 1995 as a result.
2. The Sunni organization Hamas launched a campaign of terror.

iii. North Israel was shelled by Hezbollah, a Shia movement in South Lebanon.

1996. Right-wing politician Netanyahu became office in 1996.

2005 saw Israel's unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and the transfer of authority to the Palestinian Authority. The intention was to keep Jews and Palestinians in the Gaza Strip apart. b) As a result, PA was replaced by Hamas, which seized power. It has attacked Israel with rockets from Gaza.

Israel's 2007 blockade of Gaza, which stopped commodities from entering or leaving the region. Israel's firing at a convoy transporting commodities to Gaza was denounced by Turkey. The impact of the embargo was that poor Palestinians were harmed by illegal trade with Egypt, where items were sold at astronomical prices.

2014 status: a) East Jerusalem (claimed by Palestinians but under Israeli sovereignty), West Bank (partially under Palestinian Authority and remainder with Israel), and Gaza (under Hamas).

1. b) East Jerusalem would serve as the capital of the Palestinian homeland.
2. c) Israel keeps constructing settlements in East Jerusalem and the West Bank.
3. d) Iran backs Gaza's Hamas.
4. e) Syria desires the Golan Heights returned.
5. f) India backed Palestine's full and equal membership in the UNSC. India has consistently supported the UN Palestinian cause.

Why in the News?

Multiple people have been killed in a recent vicious attack on Israel by the Islamist organization Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip. The attack was launched from the air, land, and sea. This has brought the century-old Israel-Palestine Conflict back to life, requiring international and regional forces to step in.

Israel has recently solidified a number of peace accords with its neighbors, including the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, all of which are expected to experience a shockwave following the most recent strike. ael-Palestine Conflict:

The Israel-Palestine Conflict: What is it?

• Balfour Declaration: In 1917, the then-British Foreign Secretary Arthur James Balfour announced Britain's official support for a Jewish "national home" in Palestine, sowing the roots of the conflict.
• Palestine's Creation: Britain withdrew its forces from Palestine in 1948, putting the newly established United Nations in charge of resolving the conflicting claims because it was unable to control Arab and Jewish violence.
• The majority of Arab countries rejected the UN's partition plan, which called for the creation of independent Jewish and Arab governments in Palestine.
• 1948 Arab Israel War: The Jewish declaration of independence from the surrounding Arab governments instigated an invasion in 1948. Israel possessed almost 50% more land at the end of the war than the UN partition plan had predicted.
• UN Partition Plan: Jordan was in charge of the West Bank and the sites of Jerusalem, while Egypt was in charge of the Gaza Strip. However, it was unable to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which prompted the establishment of the Palestinian Liberation Organization in 1964.
• The Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) was established in order to establish the Muslim Brotherhood's supremacy in the Arab world and to free Palestine from the grasp of Israel and Jewish control.
• The PLO was awarded observer status by the UN in 1975, and the right of Palestinians to self-determination is acknowledged.
• Six-Day War: In 1967, Israeli forces captured the Gaza Strip and Sinai Peninsula from Egypt, the Golan Heights from Syria, and the West Bank and East Jerusalem from Jordan.
• The Camp David Accords (1978): The United States' "Framework for Peace in the Middle East" laid the groundwork for peace negotiations between Israel and its neighbors as well as a settlement of the "Palestinian problem". But this never came to pass.
• Origins of Hamas: 1987 saw the founding of Hamas, a terrorist branch of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt that aimed to carry out violent jihad to further its objectives.
• The U.S. government views Hamas as a terrorist organization. The Palestinian Authority held legislative elections in 2006, which Hamas won. In 2007, it drove Fatah out of Gaza and fragmented the Palestinian organization geographically.

1987: 

• The First Intifada (Palestinian Uprising) began as tensions in the occupied regions of Gaza and the West Bank approached a breaking point. Between Palestinian terrorists and the Israeli army, it developed into a little conflict.

Oslo Accords: 1993: 

• Israel and the PLO commit to cease using violence against one another and to formally recognize one another. The Oslo Accords also created the Palestinian Authority, which was granted certain degrees of autonomy in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
• 2005: Israel starts removing Jews from Gaza settlements on its own. Israel, meanwhile, maintained a tight embargo on all border crossings.
• 2012: The UN raises Palestine's status to "non-member observer state" in its representation.

The territorial disputes involving Israel and its neighboring countries are central issues in the broader Israeli-Arab conflict. Here's an overview of these disputes:

1. West Bank: The West Bank is a region located between Israel and Jordan. It includes major Palestinian cities like Ramallah and Bethlehem. Israel captured the West Bank during the Six-Day War in 1967. Over the years, Israel has established settlements in the West Bank, which have been a major point of contention between Israelis and Palestinians. The status of the West Bank remains unresolved, and it is a focal point of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.
2. Gaza Strip: The Gaza Strip is situated between Israel and Egypt. Israel occupied Gaza during the 1967 war but later withdrew its troops and settlements from Gaza City and most of the territory as part of the Oslo peace process. However, Israel still controls access to Gaza, which has led to a blockade and restrictions on the movement of goods and people. Hamas, an Islamist organization, governs the Gaza Strip. The situation in Gaza has been a significant source of tension and conflict.
3. Golan Heights: The Golan Heights is a strategically important plateau that Israel captured from Syria during the 1967 war. Israel later annexed the territory in 1981, a move not recognized by the international community. In 2019, the United States officially recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, a decision that was met with international controversy.

These territorial disputes are at the heart of the Israeli-Arab conflict and have been the subject of numerous negotiations, peace initiatives, and international efforts to find a resolution. The status of these areas and the ultimate borders of a future Palestinian state are central issues that remain unresolved and contentious.

India's relationship with Israel has evolved significantly over the years:

1. Recognition of Israel: India recognized Israel in 1950, shortly after its own independence. This marked the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two nations.
2. Support for Palestinian Cause: Despite recognizing Israel, India historically supported the Palestinian cause and was vocal in its opposition to the UN's partition plan in 1947. India was also one of the first non-Arab countries to recognize the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) as the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people.
3. Recognition of Palestinian Statehood: India recognized the statehood of Palestine in 1988, further solidifying its support for the Palestinian cause.
4. Shift in Policy: In recent times, there has been a noticeable shift in India's approach, moving away from its historically pro-Palestine stance. This shift, known as dehyphenation, involves treating Israel and Palestine as separate entities and not linking India's relationship with one to its relationship with the other.
5. Balancing Act: India has engaged in a balancing act, maintaining its friendly ties with Israel while also expressing support for the Palestinian cause. This nuanced approach seeks to preserve diplomatic relations with both parties.
6. Growing Bilateral Ties: India's relationship with Israel has deepened over the years. The two countries have developed strong ties in areas like defense, agriculture, technology, and counter-terrorism. Israel has become an important partner for India in various fields.
7. Support for Two-State Solution: India advocates for a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict. It believes that both Israel and Palestine should coexist as independent, sovereign states, and it supports the right to self-determination for both nations.

Overall, India's stance on the Israel-Palestine conflict has evolved from being primarily pro-Palestine to adopting a more balanced approach that values its relationships with both Israel and Palestine. The recognition of Israel's statehood and the simultaneous support for the Palestinian cause reflect India's commitment to maintaining diplomatic ties with all parties involved.

The recent assault on Israel can potentially impact its ties with Saudi Arabia in several ways:

1. Disruption of Normalization Efforts: The assault by Hamas on Israel may disrupt ongoing efforts to bring Saudi Arabia and Israel closer, as well as hinder attempts by other countries in the region to normalize relations with Israel.
2. Highlighted Issues: Hamas has emphasized several issues, including perceived threats to Jerusalem's Al-Aqsa Mosque, the continuation of the Israeli blockade on Gaza, and Israel's normalization agreements with other regional countries. These concerns may influence the stance of Saudi Arabia towards Israel.
3. Impact on Muslim Brotherhood Agenda: Dehyphenating Saudi Arabia from Israel could potentially align with the agenda of the Muslim Brotherhood, which advocates for a unified Islamic state and territorial sovereignty over the Arab and Middle East region.
4. Strengthening Israel's Position: Further normalization of ties between Israel and regional powers like UAE, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia could bolster Israel's position in terms of territorial claims and negotiations, potentially affecting the prospects of reclaiming Palestinian territories.
5. Inter-Dependency and Infrastructure Development: Closer ties with countries like UAE, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia can lead to increased inter-dependence and inter-relationships, potentially driving infrastructural development and economic cooperation among these nations. However, this could also be viewed with concern by Palestinians.

It's important to note that the impact of these events on Israel-Saudi Arabia ties will depend on various geopolitical, diplomatic, and regional factors, and may evolve over time.

The way forward to a peaceful resolution of the Israel-Palestine conflict involves several key steps:

1. Global Cooperation for Peace: The international community needs to come together and work towards a peaceful solution. Balanced and constructive engagement from all involved parties is essential.
2. Encourage Balanced Approaches: Encouraging a balanced approach that maintains favorable relations with both Arab countries and Israel is crucial in finding a sustainable solution.
3. Build on Abraham Accords: The recent normalization agreements, known as the Abraham Accords, provide a positive framework for diplomatic relations. All regional powers should strive to promote peace along the lines of these accords.
4. India's Mediation Role: India, with its historical ties to both Israel and Palestine, can play a constructive role in mediating the conflict. As a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council and a member of the Human Rights Council, India is well-placed to facilitate dialogue and negotiations.
5. Advocate for Security and Stability: India should use its position in multilateral organizations to advocate for the security and stability of the Middle East and West Asia. This can be achieved through diplomatic efforts and active participation in relevant forums.
6. Support Two-State Solution: India should continue to support the two-state solution, which envisions the establishment of an independent, viable Palestinian state living side by side in peace and security with Israel.
7. Humanitarian Assistance: Providing humanitarian aid and assistance to the affected populations in both Israel and Palestine can help alleviate immediate suffering and contribute to an atmosphere conducive to peace talks.
8. Sustainable Development Initiatives: Investing in sustainable development projects in the region can promote economic stability and create opportunities for cooperation between Israelis and Palestinians.
9. Cultural and Educational Exchanges: Encouraging cultural and educational exchanges between Israeli and Palestinian communities can foster mutual understanding and bridge divides.
10. Long-Term Commitment: Achieving lasting peace in the region will require sustained diplomatic efforts, international support, and a genuine commitment from all parties involved.

It is important to recognize that achieving a resolution to the Israel-Palestine conflict is a complex and sensitive process. It will require the collective will and concerted efforts of the international community, as well as the genuine commitment of the parties directly involved.

What are the three potential conflict scenarios and what might happen in each?

• Restricted hostilities in Gaza
• Under this scenario, the fighting mostly stays inside the Gaza Strip, with very little spreading into neighboring areas.
• Possible Outcomes:
• little direct influence on the world economy. However, this is hardly good news for a global economy that is emerging from a number of setbacks, since central banks are caught between fighting inflation and averting recessions.
• The fighting may lead to a worsening humanitarian situation in Gaza, where there have already been over 8,000 fatalities.
• Regional Conflict with Iran-backed Militants: This scenario entails a more extensive regional conflict in which Iran-backed militant organizations may be involved in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon.
• Possible Repercussions: There is a chance that this may cause violence to escalate in several different areas of the region, which will heighten unrest and conflict.
• The current USD 90 per barrel of oil might rise to the mid-USD 90s, exceeding current levels due to increasing global inflation rates, which could impede the growth of the global economy by 0.3%.

A full-scale war involving Israel, Iran, and major world powers like the United States, China, and Russia would have severe global implications. Here are some potential effects:

1. Disruption of Trade and Oil Supply: The conflict could severely disrupt trade and global crude oil supply in the Middle East. This would not only impact countries directly involved but also their trading partners around the world.
2. Surge in Oil Prices: More than 20% of the world's crude supply comes from West Asia. A full-scale war in the region could lead to a drastic increase in crude oil prices, potentially pushing them up to USD 150 per barrel or even higher. This surge would have far-reaching economic consequences globally.
3. Challenges in Oil Shipments: Even if Saudi Arabia and the UAE, two major oil-producing countries, don't align with Iran, oil shipments may still face significant challenges. The conflict could disrupt shipping routes, especially through the critical Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway is a vital chokepoint through which nearly one-fifth of the world's total oil production passes.
4. Economic Impact: Higher oil prices would have a cascading effect on the global economy. Increased energy costs would lead to higher production costs across various industries, potentially leading to inflation and reduced economic growth.
5. Geopolitical Tensions: The involvement of major world powers like the United States, China, and Russia could escalate geopolitical tensions to unprecedented levels. This could have far-reaching consequences for global security and diplomatic relations.
6. Humanitarian Crisis and Regional Instability: A full-scale war would undoubtedly lead to a humanitarian crisis, with significant loss of life and displacement of populations. The instability in the region could have long-lasting effects on neighboring countries and potentially lead to further conflicts and political unrest.
7. By 2024, it is possible that global inflation will reach 6.7%, which would result in a nearly 2% slowdown in global economic development and possibly a global recession that would have a major impact on the US and India.

Overall, a full-scale war involving Israel, Iran, and major world powers would be a catastrophic event with profound implications for the entire international community. Efforts to prevent such a scenario are crucial for global stability and security.

Additional Points:

Hamas

About: Founded in 1987, Hamas is an armed political organization in Palestine. This is a violent organization that started out as a movement of resistance against Israeli occupation.

History: The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt gave rise to Hamas in 1987 as a breakaway group that aimed to carry out its goals by waging armed jihad.

As a resistance movement against Fatah and Israeli occupation, it grew in popularity.

Since 1997, the US has classified Hamas as a terrorist group. The majority of Europe and many other nations, including Israel, have this same view.

Ideology: According to Hamas, no territory in Palestine should be given up or compromised.

Any alternative to Palestine's total freedom is rejected by Hamas.

Neo-Colonialism

• Neo-colonialism is a concept that refers to the economic and political influence and control exerted by powerful and industrialized nations over politically independent but less developed countries. It involves various forms of exploitation and domination, typically for the benefit of the more powerful countries. These forms of influence can include economic exploitation, trade imbalances, political interference, military interventions, and cultural imperialism, among others.
• Neo-colonialism often manifests as developed nations, multinational corporations, or international institutions using their economic and political leverage to gain advantages or maintain control over less developed nations. This can include extracting natural resources, securing advantageous trade agreements, controlling or influencing the policies of weaker nations, and fostering dependency on the more powerful nations or entities.
• The term "neo" in neo-colonialism is used to signify that this type of influence and control represents a more subtle and indirect form of domination compared to traditional colonialism, which involved direct occupation and administration of foreign territories. Instead of direct colonial rule, neo-colonialism operates through various mechanisms to maintain a form of economic and political control over other nations while allowing them to maintain the appearance of political independence.

The absence of neo-colonialism in India can be attributed to several factors. These factors helped India maintain a degree of economic and political independence despite its history of colonial rule. Here's a summary of the key factors:

1. Development of Indigenous Capital: India saw the rise of a capitalist class during the British colonial period. This class developed on an indigenous capital base, which was distinct from the foreign capital-based economic systems in some other colonies.
2. Organized Business Class: Organizations like FICCI (Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry) were established, allowing the capitalist class to organize itself into a pressure group to influence government policies.
3. Indigenous Economic Strategies: The Bombay Plan of 1944, formulated by post-war Economic Development Committees, favored a mixed economic model that integrated some socialist ideas without compromising the essential features of capitalism. It supported partial nationalization and land reforms.
4. Support for Nationalist Movements: The Indian capitalist class supported the Indian National Movement and, by extension, the non-violent struggle for independence led by Mahatma Gandhi. They used nationalist struggles to seek concessions from the British while supporting periods of truce, which were beneficial for business and economic stability.
5. Indigenous Capital in Key Sectors: By the time of independence, Indian capitalists had a strong presence in the financial sector. Moreover, the focus on heavy industry and infrastructure post-independence laid the foundation for the growth of government-owned companies.
6. Diversified Export Basket: India had a relatively diversified export portfolio compared to some other former colonies. This diversity helped reduce dependency on a single export item.
7. Abundance of Natural Resources: India possessed significant mineral and raw material resources, which ensured a stable supply for industry.
8. Infrastructure Development: The British colonial administration developed infrastructure, including a vast rail-road network, which supported economic growth.
9. Food Security and Green Revolution: India's efforts to achieve food security, combined with the Green Revolution in the 1960s, helped the country overcome food dependency and increase agricultural productivity.
10. Policy of Import Substitution: India's policy of import substitution, a closed economy model, and nationalization of key sectors discouraged the strong presence of multinational companies.
11. Non-Aligned Movement: India's participation in the Non-Aligned Movement during the Cold War helped maintain independence from both major power blocs and minimized foreign interference in its internal affairs.
12. Democratic Governance: India's strong democratic institutions, including the organizational structure of the Indian National Congress, contributed to political stability.
13. Strong Defense: India's strong military acted as a deterrent to military threats and contributed to its sovereignty.

These factors, combined with India's historical and cultural diversity, helped the country maintain a degree of independence and resist neo-colonialism, despite challenges and global pressures.