Domestic Savings in India and Trends

Gross Domestic Savings: Overview

Definition of Savings: Savings refer to the portion of income that individuals, corporations, and the government do not immediately consume but set aside for future use. It is the surplus income over and above current expenditures.

Domestic Sources of Savings:

1. Household Savings:
• Voluntary Savings: Deliberate choices made by individuals or households to save a portion of their income for future needs. This can take the form of bank deposits, investments, etc.
• Involuntary Savings: Savings that result from government incentives or policies, such as tax concessions, pension schemes, or higher interest rates on certain savings instruments.
• Forced Savings: Arise due to factors like high inflation. Inflation can erode the purchasing power of money, leading individuals to save in assets or instruments that offer returns exceeding the inflation rate.
2. Corporate Savings:
• Corporations save from their profits, setting aside a portion for future investments, expansions, or to meet unforeseen challenges.
3. Government Savings:
• The government also contributes to savings through various policies and schemes. For example, government investments in long-term projects, sovereign wealth funds, or other forms of saving for future obligations.

Factors Influencing Savings:

1. Tax Concessions:
• Governments often use tax policies to encourage savings. Tax incentives, such as deductions on certain savings or investment instruments, can stimulate voluntary savings.
2. Interest Rate Subsidies:
• Higher interest rates offered on savings instruments, such as Post Office certificates or government bonds, can incentivize individuals to save more.

Types of Household Savings: Voluntary, involuntary, and forced savings represent different categories of household savings:

1. Voluntary Savings:
• Intentional savings made by individuals based on their financial goals and planning.
2. Involuntary Savings:
• Savings resulting from government policies or incentives, even if individuals did not initially plan to save.
3. Forced Savings:
• Savings compelled by external factors, such as high inflation, where individuals seek to protect their money's real value by investing in assets that outpace inflation.

Addressing Inflationary Pressures:

• In the face of high inflation, central banks may introduce measures to protect savers. This can include offering interest rates that outpace inflation or issuing Inflation Indexed Bonds (IBs) to safeguard the real value of savings.

Conclusion: Gross Domestic Savings encompass the savings generated by households, corporations, and the government. The types of savings, including voluntary, involuntary, and forced savings, reflect the diverse factors influencing individuals' decisions to save. Government policies, tax concessions, and interest rate subsidies play significant roles in shaping the savings landscape. Additionally, addressing inflationary pressures is crucial to preserving the real value of savings.

Household Savings: Influencing Factors

Household savings in India, as well as globally, are influenced by a myriad of factors that collectively shape individuals' decisions to save. Understanding the interplay of these factors is crucial for analyzing savings patterns. Here are key determinants:

1. Per Capita GDP:
• Higher per capita income generally correlates with increased savings. However, multiple factors, such as inflation, interest rates, and social security, can modify this relationship. For instance, in the United States, despite a high per capita income, the domestic household savings rate is relatively low due to various economic conditions.
2. Demographic Factors:
• A young and working-age population, as seen in India, tends to contribute to a higher savings rate. However, demographic factors alone are insufficient for sustained growth and savings; they must align with stable macroeconomic policies.
3. Real Interest Rate:
• Inflation-adjusted interest rates significantly influence savings. Positive real interest rates, exceeding the inflation rate, often motivate savers to save more.
4. Fiscal Policy and Taxes:
• Tax incentives, such as those provided for mutual funds or post office deposits, can serve as a motivation for savings. Similarly, disinvestment strategies, including offering shares at concessional rates to small investors, can make savings more attractive.
5. Rising Wages:
• Creation of new jobs with decent wages can lead to increased savings. This factor is particularly important for India's demographic dividend, as optimism is fueled by the potential for rising incomes and savings.
6. Income Distribution:
• The distribution of income plays a crucial role in the savings rate. Extreme inequality can hinder wealth distribution and economic mobility, impacting the overall savings scenario. Equity in income distribution can stimulate economic growth and savings.
7. Financial Reforms:
• The availability of diverse and attractive financial products, coupled with the reach of financial institutions, can enhance financial inclusion and encourage savings. Initiatives like Payments Banks, Small Finance Banks, and Jan Dhan aim to boost financial accessibility.
8. Taxation Effects:
• Tax policies can positively influence savings. Measures such as raising the entry level for tax liability or providing rebates on long-term capital gains tax contribute to a favorable savings environment. Tax stability is also a critical factor.

Capacity vs. Readiness to Save:

• Capacity to Save: Driven by per capita income, income growth, and income distribution.
• Readiness to Save: Influenced by interest rates, access to financial institutions, availability of suitable financial products, and the rate of inflation.

Complex Determinants:

• Multiple Factors: No single factor dominates the savings rate; it is a dynamic interplay of various factors discussed above.

Savings and Investment: Interplay in Economic Growth

Savings play a crucial role in facilitating economic growth, particularly in the context of investment. The relationship between savings and investment is intricate and holds significant implications for the overall economic landscape. Here are key points to consider:

1. Source of Funds for Investment:
• Savings serve as a vital source of funds for a growth-oriented economy. Financial savings, including those deposited in banks, non-banking finance companies (NBFCs), bonds, and stock markets, provide investible funds for various economic activities such as:
• Investment in fixed capital for factories.
• Purchase of machinery and equipment.
• Infrastructure development.
• Support for exports.
• Funding innovation and research.
2. Physical Savings and Economic Growth:
• Physical savings, which involve investments in tangible assets like land and buildings, contribute to economic growth by creating demand in the real estate sector.
3. Conditions for Effective Conversion:
• Increased savings do not automatically translate into increased investment. Several conditions must be met for this conversion to occur successfully:
• Savings should be directed toward financial assets, allowing funds to be lent for investment purposes.
• The economy should be in a state of growth, not facing a slowdown or recession. In economic downturns, the demand for credit decreases, leading to a situation known as a "liquidity trap." In this scenario, even if savings increase, they may not be channeled into investments.
4. Liquidity Trap:
• A liquidity trap occurs when the demand for credit is low due to economic stagnation. In such situations, despite increased savings, funds may not be effectively utilized for investment purposes.
5. Paradox of Thrift:
• The concept of the "paradox of thrift" highlights that while there is a positive relationship between savings, investment, and growth up to a certain point, beyond that threshold, an excessive focus on savings can lead to a decline in consumption. As consumption falls, so does investment and overall economic growth.
6. Optimal Point for Savings:
• There is an optimal point for savings beyond which the positive correlation between savings, investment, and growth may reverse. Excessive savings that compromise consumption levels can hinder the cycle of investment and economic expansion.

Understanding these dynamics is crucial for policymakers to strike a balance between encouraging savings and ensuring that funds are effectively deployed for productive investment, fostering sustained economic growth.

Domestic Savings in India: Sector-wise Overview

In India, domestic savings are officially categorized into three broad sectors: the public sector, the private corporate sector, and the household sector. Here's a brief overview of each sector's role in the overall savings scenario:

1. Public Sector:
• The public sector includes the government and its enterprises.
• The public sector often records deficits, which are termed dissavings. Dissavings occur when expenditures exceed revenues, resulting in a negative savings balance for the public sector.
2. Private Corporate Sector:
• The private corporate sector is limited to organized corporations operating under the company form of ownership and management.
• This sector comprises businesses, companies, and corporations that contribute to the overall savings pool.
3. Household Sector:
• The household sector encompasses individuals and all non-government, non-corporate enterprises.
• Non-corporate entities within the household sector include sole proprietorships, partnerships, and non-profit institutions.
• Non-profit institutions within the household sector often provide essential services such as education, healthcare, cultural activities, recreational services, and other social and community services to households.

Savings Rate Calculation:

• The Central Statistics Office (CSO) plays a crucial role in releasing statistics on the savings rate in India.
• The savings rate is typically calculated by considering the total savings in the economy as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
• The savings rate provides insights into the overall propensity of different sectors to save and invest.

Understanding the distribution of savings across these sectors is essential for policymakers, economists, and analysts to formulate strategies that encourage savings, promote investment, and drive sustainable economic growth. The household sector, in particular, plays a significant role as it includes individual savings and non-corporate entities that contribute to the overall savings landscape in the country.

Domestic Savings Trends in India: An Overview

Savings, encompassing household, corporate, and government sectors, play a crucial role in financing investments and sustaining economic growth over the medium to long term. The trends in domestic savings in India have witnessed notable changes over the decades:

1. Historical Growth in Savings Rate:
• The savings rate in India has shown a positive correlation with economic growth.
• From a low of 7.9% of GDP in 1954, the savings rate reached an all-time high of 37.8% in 2008.
• During the period of 2003-2008, there was a significant peak in both savings and investments, indicating a complementary relationship.
2. Recent Downward Trend:
• In the past decade, the savings rate has experienced a downward trend.
• The overall savings rate dropped to 32% in fiscal 2018 from the peak of 37% in fiscal 2008.
3. Composition of Savings:
• Household savings, the largest contributors to the economy, saw a decline from 23.1% of GDP in fiscal 2010 to 17.2% in fiscal 2018.
• The share of household savings in gross savings fell from 68.2% to 56.3%.
• Physical savings (real estate and gold) within households decreased from 15.9% to 10.3%.
• Financial savings also declined, moving from 7.4% to 6.6%.
4. Private Corporate Sector Savings:
• In contrast to household savings, the private corporate sector witnessed an increase in savings rate, reaching 11.6% of GDP in fiscal 2018 from 7.4% a decade ago.
5. Factors Influencing the Decline in Household Savings:
• Increased consumption, especially among the young population with a higher capacity for spending.
• Economic deceleration leading to lower growth, incomes, and savings rates.
6. Methodological Changes:
• Changes in the base year to 2011-12 and methodological shifts contributed to the exclusion of certain physical assets from households, affecting the reported savings figures.

Understanding the dynamics of savings trends is essential for policymakers and economists to address factors influencing savings behavior, encourage investment, and foster sustainable economic development. The recent decline in household savings underscores the importance of addressing consumption patterns and economic growth for a holistic economic strategy.

Small Savings in India: An Overview

Small savings instruments play a crucial role in promoting safe and long-term savings by individuals, especially those with relatively small amounts to invest. The key small savings instruments in India include:

1. Post Office Monthly Income Schemes and Time Deposits:
• Offered by the Post Office, these schemes provide individuals with avenues to save small amounts regularly and earn returns.
2. National Savings Scheme (NSS):
• A savings instrument initiated by the central government and mobilized by state governments. NSS includes various schemes such as Indira Vikas Patra, Kisan Vikas Patra, and Public Provident Fund.
3. Management and Administration:
• While initiated by the central government, small savings are mobilized and managed by state governments. State governments receive savings from their territories as loans, attracting a slightly higher interest rate than what the central government pays to savers.
4. Tax Concessions and Higher Interest Rates:
• Small savings schemes come with tax concessions, enhancing their attractiveness for small savers.
• The interest rates offered by these schemes are typically higher than those provided by banks.
5. Inclusivity:
• Small savings are designed to cater to low-income and various demographic groups but are open to all.
6. Distribution Channels:
• Small savings instruments are retailed through a vast network of post offices, with a significant presence in rural areas.
7. National Small Savings Fund (NSSF):
• The NSSF, in the Public Account of India, holds all small savings.
• Money in the fund is invested in Central and State Government Securities.
8. Administration of NSSF:
• The NSSF is administered by the Government of India, Ministry of Finance (Department of Economic Affairs), under the National Small Savings Fund (Custody and Investment) Rules, 2001.
9. Borrowing Dynamics:
• States have expressed reservations about borrowing from the NSSF, citing higher rates compared to the market.
• In 2017, some states were exempted from mandatory borrowing from NSSF, leading to increased borrowings by the central government from the savings mobilized in those states.
10. Fiscal Implications:
• Small savings contribute significantly to the finances of both the central and state governments, serving as an essential source of government borrowing.
• NSSF borrowings are serviced from the Consolidated Fund of India (CFI).

While small savings schemes contribute to financial inclusion and provide attractive options for savers, there are ongoing discussions about optimizing borrowing rates and ensuring fiscal sustainability at both the central and state levels.